Glasgow East - I feel sorry for Labour Grassroots.

No, I'm not poking fun at the Labour faithful after last night's devastating defeat. I've been a member of the Conservative party for just over a year, and prior to that I was an out and out Labour supporter. Until about 2003 the Labour party could do no wrong in my eyes. However, I did realise that I was making excuses for their apparent inability to manage public spending. I was all for their increased expenditure in our services, and I believed that more money would bring top class health and education systems.

By the 2005 General Election I was becoming very disillusioned, but I was still willing to give Labour the benefit of the doubt. I hoped that after eight years of pumping money into our services and what seemed like endless reforms, that a third term in government would see them finally come to grips with actually managing what they had put in place. Of course I was kidding myself.

By 2006 I was totally disillusioned and was in a political limbo, not knowing which party to support. By 2007 I had been following politics for a while via the web, in particular through political blogs. It was about this time that I realised that my personal beliefs were more in line with Tory policy, in fact their policies were so good that Labour were stealing them.

In the last year the Labour party has crumbled further under Gordon Brown's leadership. Brown is not the man to be running this country, and some of the ridiculous policies he has pushed out have only turned (what should be rock solid) Labour voters against the party. His claims of being a great Chancellor have turned to dust as we realise that in the face of an economic downturn we have massive debt. If we have had ten years of being led by an economic genius, why are we so skint? When times were good Brown gambled with our money, he spent like an American heiress and borrowed more when his credit was maxed out.

In the face of defeat in 2010 it looks like Brown could be adopting a Scorched Earth policy by borrowing more and leaving the Tories with the bill. Unfortunately it looks like we could be stuck with Brown for another two years if the Labour party do not get their act together and put nation before party. If they want to stay in power, Labour need to find a way to get rid of Brown without triggering a General Election which they cannot afford to fight (however two unelected PMs would be hard for the public to swallow). If this proves impossible, then for the good of the nation, Labour need to get rid of Brown, call an election, and accept that they are going to be out of power for at least one term.

Even Labour's most ardent supporters must realise that two more years of Brown will do nothing but harm to this country. He must go.

Glasgow East by-election 2008 results. SNP win?

Well the talk is that there's going to be a re-count, bugger, it looks like it's going to be a late night. It seems the SNP have won it, but Labour aren't giving up without a fight. Good news for the Conservatives comes from the early estimate of a 10% share of the vote, that's up at least 3 points on 2005 and should see them leap-frog the Lib Dems. In fact the word is that the Lib Dems could lose their deposit (Oh dear, how sad, never....).

UPDATE@ 01:45 Looks like it's going to be a full re-count.

UPDATE@ 01:47 Could be a bundle count - Phew!

UPDATE@ 01:57 It's a full recount - Labour have called for it, seeing as there's only a few hundred votes in it. Result in 10 - 15mins. (ish)

UPDATE@ 02:07 Anytime now. Candidates and agents are gathering.

UPDATE@ 02:22 The results: SNP WIN!!! Tories take THIRD!!!

SNP 11,277

Labour 10,912

Conservatives 1,639

Lib Dems 915

Turnout 42%

What now for Gordon Brown and Labour?

Billy Connolly - Old woman on a bus - Hilarious.

Seeing as we've got a Scottish by-election going on this week, I thought I'd treat you to some classic Billy Connolly. The first time I saw this clip I could hardly breath for laughing. Enjoy:

Glasgow East by-election results. My prediction.

Click HERE for the latest news on the by-election.

According to the bookie William Hill, Labour have got the Glasgow East by-election sewn up. I'm not so sure. I think it is entirely possible for the SNP to just nick the seat. Whatever happens I'm 100% positive that Labour's candidate Margaret Curran will not achieve anywhere near their 2005 majority of 13507 (43.7%). In 2005 the turnout was 30,939 (48.2%), but I don't think we will see that many vote in this by election, possibly 35%.

A good result for Labour would be a win with a majority of 5000+.
A fair result for Labour would be a win with a majority of 1000+.
A bad result for Labour would be a win with a majority of less than 1000.
A terrible result for Labour (possibly the end for Gordon Brown) would be to lose.

A good result for the SNP (possibly the end for Gordon Brown) would be a win.
A fair result for the SNP would be loosing by less than 2000 votes.
A bad result for the SNP would be loosing by more than 5000 votes.
A terrible result for the SNP would be loosing by more than 8000 votes.

A excellent result for the Conservatives would be to receive a 15% share of the vote.
A good result for the Conservatives would be to receive a 10% share of the vote.
A bad result for the Conservatives would be to receive less than 7% of the vote.

A excellent result for the Lib Dems would be to receive a 20% share of the vote.
A good result for the Lib Dems would be to receive a 15% share of the vote.
A bad result for the Lib Dems would be to receive less than 12% of the vote.

So here's my prediction for Thursday: Labour win by a majority of less than 2000 over the SNP. Lib Dems 10% of the vote, Conservatives 16% (hopeful I know) of the vote.

The latest odds from William Hill:

Labour Backed To Hold On In Glasgow- Is This A Brown Bounce?

Bookmakers William Hill have shortened the price of a Labour victory in the Glasgow East By-Election from 2/5 to 1/3 as money comes in for the Labour Candidate. The money is good news for Gordon Brown who until today was favourite to leave office this year but he is now out to 2/1 (from 5/4) to go in 2008 and is odds on at 4/6 to lead Labour into the next Election. The long term outlook is still fairly grim with the Conservatives 2/7 favourites and Labour offered at 5/2.

"There is a definite Brown bounce going on, which is good news for Gordon but he has still got a huge amount to do if he is to lead Labour to victory at the next General Election," said Hill's spokesman Rupert Adams.

I think Rupert may be getting a little carried away. There's not going to be any kind of "Brown Bounce" - unless it's his backside hitting the cobbles outside No10.

Labour's Margaret Curran - You couldn't make it up.

I'll say this for Margaret Curran - she's got some neck. In the Labour campaign leaflet below, Margaret criticises the SNP saying "Thousands of drug dealers, thieves and neds will be released onto our streets under SNP plans to empty our jails" Actually what the SNP plan to do is reduce the number of sentences of under six months handed out by using community service and fines as an alternative. But what really gets me is how she can criticise the SNP when Labour are doing far, far worse.


Maybe Margaret should read this article from the Independent and reconsider her campaign leaflet design:

Nearly 29,000 criminals have been freed from prison early in the first 11 months of an emergency scheme to beat jail overcrowding, it was announced yesterday.

Figures released by Justice Secretary Jack Straw showed there were 2,532 offenders freed up to 18 days early in May, bringing the total to 28,879.

The scheme has already exceeded the government's original estimate of how many inmates would be freed in the first year.

Officials had predicted 25,500 criminals would be freed in 12 months but that total was breached in April's figures, just 10 months into operation.

Last week it was revealed that one of the freed inmates is alleged to have raped someone.

The alleged attacker would have still been behind bars at the time if the early release scheme had not been in force.

Mr Straw has also been forced to make emergency changes to the rules of the scheme after it emerged that two terrorists had been freed early.

Shadow justice secretary Nick Herbert said: "After a year of this appalling scheme the figures just get worse - more criminals released early, more violent offenders and more unnecessary victims of crime.

"The Government promised that this policy which is so undermining confidence in our criminal justice system would only be temporary - but if it will only be reviewed in September 2009, almost 70,000 prisoners will have been released early.

"It should be scrapped immediately before any more harm is done."

Currently, 89 offenders recalled to prison after being freed under the scheme are on the run.

Guido has spotted a problem with Margaret's campaign site.

William Hill - No shortage of cash for SNP to beat Labour (Glasgow East).

From William Hill:

THE GLASGOW East by-election is shaping up to be the biggest betting by-election ever, say bookmakers William Hill. 'We are doing tremendous business in a constituency which would normally attract very little betting money as, on the formbook,Labour should be unbackable to win here - yet there is as much money for them to lose as win' said Hill's spokesman Graham Sharpe.

Hills currently make Labour 2/5 favourites to win the by-election, after taking the biggest single bet struck so far, of £2200 for them to win, while the SNP are now quoted at 7/4 - and have recently attracted two bets of £1000; the Conservatives are 33/1 and the Lib Dems 50/1. 'Although this is Labour's third safest seat in Scotland there has been no shortage of cash for the SNP to beat them and this could yet turn out to be the first by-election to produce a betting turnover of £100,000' said Sharpe. 'Labour were favourites when we opened the book, then they became joint favourites with the SNP, then the SNP became clear favourites, then they were joint favourites again and now Labour have gone back ahead.'

TO WIN GLASGOW EAST BY-ELECTION: 2/5 Labour; 7/4 SNP; 33/1 Conservative; 50/1Lib Dem.

It's worth noting that Hills have the Conservatives beating the Lib Dems into third place. This is a reversal of the 2005 General election which saw the Lib Dems on 12% and the Tories on 7%. It also contradicts the latest ICM poll from the Telegraph (Lib Dem 9% Con 7%).

Conservatives to take second place in Glasgow East.

William Hill are giving odds of 33/1 for the Conservatives to win the Glasgow East By-Election. I think those are very generous odds and William Hill may regret them. I think there a chance (though very slim) that the Tories could take Glasgow East.

However, I think that there is a very good chance of the Tories coming second to the SNP. A recent poll as put the SNP in front of Labour and the Conservatives not a million miles behind them. Labour are losing a lot of support in Scotland. The question is - where will that support go?

I think that those polled recently may have some difficulty admitting that they are intending to vote Tory. However, when they are alone in that polling booth with a ballot paper and a pen, they may just put an X next to the little blue tree.

UPDATE: From Patrick Hennessy:

Tomorrow's Sunday Telegraph reveals the findings of the first opinion poll to be conducted exclusively within the Glasgow East constituency ahead of the crucial by-election there on 24 July. Politicians from all sides will be studying the results from the ICM survey avidly - none more so than Gordon Brown who has faced claims he could be forced out of Number 10 if Labour loses.

I'll post the results of the poll when they are published later tonight.

UPDATE 2: The ICM survey for the Sunday Telegraph puts the Labour party on 47 per cent of the vote with its nearest challenger, the Scottish National Party (SNP), on 33 per cent.
Liberal Democrats are on nine per cent and the Conservatives on seven per cent.

See, the Tories are looking good for second place.

Haltemprice and Howden - David Davis could get more votes than in 2005.

David Davis could well pull off a decent if not great result in the Haltemprice and Howden By-Election. Early estimates put the turn out at 35% which means that it is possible for David to beat the number of votes he got in 2005 (22,792, but it would be close). This kind of result would of course be excellent considering Labour bottled it.

From the BBC (before they realised the turnout was so high):

Could the former shadow home secretary actually get more votes than he did in the 2005 general election? Impossible say the experts. If he does get more than 22,792 votes it will not only be a massive vindication of his campaign against 42 day detention of terror suspects, it will also confirm him as a major player at Westminster once again and ensure civil liberties is a major issue at the next general election. It will also leave a few Westminster pundits with large amounts of egg on their faces - surely reason enough to tune into the election coverage later, just on the off chance...

UPDATE 0245: Turn out was 35% and David Davis was the clear winner with 17119 votes. I think that can be taken to be a good result.

David Davis - Most Unlikely Civil Liberties Defender.

I just love this from Billy Ruffian: David Davis should be proud.

Most Unlikely Civil Liberties Defender Of All

Calling Haltemprice and Howden - please vote for liberty.

Today you the residents of Haltemprice and Howden have a unique chance to send the government a clear message. With each vote you cast in favour of David Davis you are telling our political masters that enough is enough - that they have taken your freedom and liberty for granted for the last time. To send this message, you will need to vote, so I beg you to please send a message from the nation to Brown.

It could you being fined for over filling your bin. It could you that gets locked up for six weeks without charge (innocent or not). It could be your DNA held on the national database without ever being found guilty of a crime. Your child could be one of the many thousands of innocent kids held on that same database. Gordon Brown will soon force you to carry an ID card, but to add insult to injury, you will be paying for the privilege through your tax to set up the scheme, and you will be paying direct from your pocket to buy your own card.

Did you know that you can walk the length of London without ever being "off camera", what's it like in your town? what will it be like in the future if Gordon's government are not stopped? Did you know that every time you ring the council, or when they ring you, that you are being recorded whether you give permission or not? Did you know that there are 266 powers allowing officials to enter your home? Whatever happened to our castles?

So please, I beg you again to go out and vote me, yourself and the rest of the nation.


UPDATE: From the Telegraph: "Despite fears that a tiny turnout might affect the result, voters in Howden were queuing outside the Shire Hall in the sunshine as the booths opened at 7am." - I hope this is an indicator for the rest of the day.

What Fraser Nelson saw in Glasgow East

Over on the Coffee House Blog, Fraser Nelson has posted on his visit to Glasgow East. His story, both haunting and sad, takes me back to my youth. According to Gordon Brown we have had 11 years of economic growth and stability, and yet there are areas of our country where life is just one slow, miserable march towards death. A fate that only a lucky few escape. Here is a little of what Fraser found in Glasgow East:

Our final stop was a high rise tower block of flats next to Celtic Park. We were let in to film the view from an empty flat on the top floor. On the way in, we passed a man staggering by clutching a can of Special Brew and children behind him, calling him 'dad'. Each child had two dogs. Lifts come seldom, so plenty piled on the one taking us to the 29th floor. We were joined by a chap who was clearly a drug user, he asked the cameraman how much his equipment cost. "A fair amount" he said. He then offered to "steal" it from him, and split the proceeds. He declined. This guy couldn't have been any more than 20, yet he looked like a ghost. This was Parkhead South where life expectancy is 62 years (and falling). Life expectancy is higher in both Uzbekistan and Bangladesh.

You can read Fraser's full story by clicking HERE.

Gordon Brown now only 3/1 to be gone by year's end.

From William Hill:

HAPPY ANNIVERSARY, MR BROWN - YOU'RE ON THE WAY OUT

BOOKMAKERS William Hill have cut the odds about Gordon Brown being out of office as Labour leader before the next General Election takes place, from 5/4 to 11/10 following the Henley by-election.
And Hills have also slashed the odds about him standing down before the end of this year to 3/1 from 5/1.
'Although Mr Brown is a slight odds on chance at 4/6 still to be leader when the General Election comes round we haven't taken a single bet of £100 or more for him to do so for months' said Hill's spokesman Graham Sharpe.
LABOUR are now 5/2 with William Hill to win the next General Election - the longest odds they have been since coming to power in 1997 - and Hills now make the Tories red hot favourites at 2/7 to win the next Election - their shortest odds since LOSING power. The Lib Dems are 100/1 outsiders.
Hills offer 5/1 that Labour WILL put up a candidate against David Davis at the forthcoming by-election.

WILLIAM HILL:
YEAR OF GORDON BROWN DEPARTURE FROM PM OFFICE

2008 3/1
2009 5/2
2010 5/4
2011 33/1
2012 50/1
2013 50/1
2014 20/1
2015 20/1
2016 20/1
2017 16/1

Henley voters give Gordon Brown an anniversary present.

Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear. Not only did Labour get hammered into 5th place behind the BNP and the Greens, they also lost their deposit. No wonder William Hill have slashed their odds for Gordon Brown down to 3/1 for him to be gone by the end of the year.

Very well done to John Howell MP and everyone involved in this fantastic result. It's marvelous that the Conservative share of the vote increased in the face of a very strong Lib Dem campaign.

From the Times:

John Howell (C) 19,796 (57%, +3.5%)
Stephen Kearney (LD) 9,680 (28%, +1.8%)
Mark Stevenson (Green) 1,321 (3.8%, +0.5%)
Timothy Rait (BNP) 1,243 (3.6%)
Richard McKenzie (Lab) 1,066 (3.1%, -11.7%)
Chris Adams (UKIP) 843 (2.4%, -0.1%)
Bananaman Owen (Loony) 242 (0.70%)
Derek Allpass (Eng Dem) 157 (0.45%)

C maj 10,116 (29.1%)

0.81% swing LD to C

Turnout 34,761 (50.3%, -17.6%)

(2005 C maj 12,793)

Labour MPs pledge support to David Davis over 42 Days.

One of the biggest jokes, and I might add, lies of the last week was Labour's claim that the Tories are split over 42 Days. Let's look at the facts: On the vote for the extension of detention without charge to 42 Days only one Conservative MP rebelled against their party. However, there were 36 Labour rebels, and there would have been more if it hadn't been for some desperate arm twisting and bribery. To prove the point, and to embarrass Gordon Brown into a fit of mobile phone smashing mania, two of his MPs have pledged their support to David Davis in his by-election campaign. Now that's a split. The air must be a wonderful shade of blue in Downing Street this morning.

Will Brown have the cheek to call the Tories split over this matter again? I think he will because once he starts using a line, he tends to wear it out. And he's got so used to lying to the public he will conclude that there's no point stopping now. Brown has called this move by Davis a farce. What is a real farce is the fact that Brown is too scared to put up a Labour candidate for fear of losing. And what's even more farcical is that the Labour guy who should be fighting Davis (Edward Hart) is anti-42 days. Can you Adam and Eve it?

Labour MP Bob Marshall-Andrews has said:

“I applaud David Davis’s decision to resign and fight a by-election on the single issue of civil liberty. “The election will obviously transcend party politics and I have written to David Davis to inform him that I will be happy to accept any invitation to speak during the course of his campaign to ensure that the voice of a substantial part of the Labour party may be heard.”

Also pledging his support, Ian Gibson, Labour MP for Norwich North, said:

“Davis has a good argument. You can call it a stunt or a gimmick, but there is a serious side to this. I’m quite happy to join in. I’d be quite happy to share that platform to talk about what I think.”

Brown and some sections of the Labour party are going to lose a lot of face and support before this by-election is over. Well done to those Labour MPs who are supporting David's fight for our civil liberties.

The English Democrats name their Henley Candidate.

PRESS RELEASE

HENLEY PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTION

TheEnglish Democrats are pleased to announce that we have a candidate nominated to stand in the high profile Henley by-election. The election takes place on 26th June 2008.

Derek Allpass, a retired businessman and Organic Farmer, who lives in nearby Marlow and has 2 adult children, said:-

“I am delighted to stand for the English Democrats. The English Democrats are the English equivalent of Plaid Cymru and the Scottish National Party. In this election only the English Democrats are standing up for England and English interests.”

“The English Democrats argue that the people of Henley, Oxfordshire and England should have fair and equal treatment with the people of Scotland. This can only happen for England if we have our own Parliament, First Minister and Government, which is exactly what the English Democrats are campaigning for”.

“I am proud to be English and keenly support having an English Parliament. As a party the English Democrats believe in family values and upholding our national traditions, celebrating our heroes like Lord Nelson and Winston Churchill. We support the campaign for a national holiday on St George’s Day and keeping our traditional counties. A vote for the English Democrats Party is a vote for England. Our motto is “Not left, not right, just English!”.

John Howell selected to replace Boris.

Oxfordshire County councillor John Howell has been selected as the Conservative candidate hoping to replace Boris Johnson as Henley MP. John, a member of the Oxfordshire county cabinet and the representative for Dorchester and Berinsfield, was selected ahead of Ann Ducker and John Cotton. Also a parish councillor in Warborough, John was made an OBE in 2000.

The election should take place in the next two or three weeks. John said: "For now I just want to say that it is a huge privilege to have been selected as the Conservative candidate for my home constituency. “I plan to spend the next few weeks talking to as many local people as possible about the issues that affect us all in South Oxfordshire."

Good luck John Howell.

I wonder what form of idiocy we can expect from the Labour campaign this time around.

Crewe and Nantwich result - Conservative win!

Well it's 2:24 in the morning and the returning officer is about to announce the result of the Crewe and Nantwich by-election. It's obvious that the Conservatives have won. The rumour is that it's a big win.

Here goes:

Con: 20539

lab 12679

Lib: 6044

Get in!

That fantastic result equates to a swing of 17.6% and a majority of almost 8,000. What now for Gordon Brown? What is that scraping sound I can hear? - it sounds a little like several knives being sharpened.

Sent from my BlackBerry® wireless device

UPDATE @02:45: John McDonnell is the first Labour MP to stick the knife into Gordon Brown this morning. I doubt very much that he will be the last:

"Things are just going from bad to worse for the Government. "It would be an immense misreading of the situation for New Labour ministers to dismiss this result as simply mid-term blues. The prime minister's re-launch after the disaster of the local election results has proved to be totally ineffective."

Crewe and Nantwich - £90,000 bet on Conservative win.

From William Hill:

NINETY THOUSAND POUND BET ON TORIES TO WIN CREWE BY ELECTION

A WILLIAM HILL client has staked £90,000 on the Conservatives to win the Crewe & Nantwich by-election. After betting £40,000 at odds of 1/16 on Tuesday in a Hill's central London branch, the same man returned on Thursday to stake a further £50,000 at 1/25. With the Conservatives red-hot favourites, the man stands to get back £94,500 in total.

'This is the biggest ever bet staked on a by-election and it contrasts starkly with the fact that we have taken a total of just £385 for Labour to win' said Hill's spokesman Graham Sharpe.

WILLIAM HILL CREWE BY-ELECTION ODDS: 1/33 Conservatives; 10/1 Labour; 50/1 Lib Dems.

Hills offer 8/1 that the Lib Dems will finish ahead of Labour, and 1/20 vice-versa.

Crewe and Nantwich - And the Polls are open.

It's a bit sad I know, but I've been looking forward to today's by-election in Crewe and Nantwich as much, if not more than last night's footie (well done ManU). I've got a feeling in my water that unlike last night, we are going to see a massive (10,000 ish) win for the blues. I received a press release last night from the lovely people at PoliticsHome. Unfortunately I couldn't post it as, one - it arrived just before the football started, and two - I was at work (12 hr night shift). The said press release indicated their PHI100 panel's opinion on what would be a good or bad result for the two main parties involved:

I have to agree with the panel that anything over 4000 for the Conservatives would be a really good win, but as I said, I'm expecting more. The reason I'm predicting such a large win? The way I see it is that Labour (Gordon Brown in particular) are becoming more unpopular by the day and I think they are in for one mighty shock when the counting is over. I've been saying for six months that Brown will be on his way in May this year, and I would say that there is an 80 per cent likelihood of his ultimate demise being set in motion on Friday.

Ditching Gordon Brown will not help Labour win the next election - they've become too unpopular and even that won't help them. It will however give them a fighting chance of remaining the second largest party in parliament. The drums are beating and coalitions are being formed behind closed doors in the Labour party. You can bet that getting rid of Gordon plan A and plan B are ready to roll. Plan A will probably based around forcing Gordon to step down through a lack of support - i.e. he will be slagged off something chronic by a large number of Labour MPs in the press. Plan B will require MPs to play by the rules and I don't think they want to wait that long or drag the party through the mire.

So that's my prediction. I'll update this post after the dust has settled to either say "ooh ooh I'm the King" or to eat humble pie.

Crewe and Nantwich - William Hill take record £40,000 bet (Tory win),

Press release from William Hill:

Conservative Cheer In Crewe As Punter Places Biggest Ever By Election Bet!
William Hill have today taken the biggest ever by election bet, when a customer from central London placed £40,000 on a Conservative victory in the Crewe & Nantwich by election at odds of 1/16 and should he be successful he will collect £42,500. As a result Hills have slashed the price of a Conservative victory from 1/16 to 1/20 and offer the Labour party at 8/1 (Lib Dem 20/1).

"This is a massive political punt, nobody risks £40,000 to win just £2,500 unless they are certain of victory. We are not 100% sure of the punters political affiliation but the description does not match that of Gordon Brown, who is likely to be in for a miserable few days," said Hill's spokesman Rupert Adams.

Also - William Hill have halved their odds for Gordon Brown to be ousted as Prime Minister this year from 5/1 to 5/2 after significant support for him to be out by the end of the year. 'Punters seem convinced that Mr Brown is on the way out sooner rather than later.'