I've been thinking.... dangerous I know, but I was pretty convinced that Labour would get rid of Gordon Brown by the end of May. I was wrong obviously, but by God they had enough reason to chuck him. It seems that nothing short of a total disaster for the Labour party (a party killer) will remove Gordon from number ten. So I was trying to think of a situation that would trigger senior ministers to ask Brown to do the right thing and fall on his sword.
And then it hit me: It will happen the day that the Lib Dems are shown to be on an equal footing or ahead of Labour in a major poll. It would be unbearable for many Labour MPs to be considered the country's third party. The thing is, that scenario may not be that far away. We have already seen the gap close to five points in some recent polls.
So I say that if you want to know when Gordon Brown will step down.........watch the polls!