Tuesday, 28 October 2008

Glenrothes by-election - My prediction - SNP win.

The Glenrothes by-election is fast approaching, only nine days to polling day. There seems to be some speculation that Labour may just manage to cling onto their (what should be safe) seat.

Form William Hill:

Labour Odds On For Glenrothes!

Labour are catching the SNP in the Glenrothes by-election, according to bookies William Hill who now offer labour at 10/11 with the SNP marginal favourites at 4/5. "Since Gordon Brown went up to Glenrothes we have not taken a penny on the SNP and a Labour victory now looks on the cards," said Hill's spokesman Rupert Adams.
I don't think Labour will hold on. Too much water has passed under the bridge, and as the vote nears, the fact that Gordon Brown and Labour got us into this financial mess will be drummed into the voters by the other parties.

So my prediction

SNP win by more than 1000 votes (receiving around 12,000 votes)
The Conservative percentage increases slightly.
The Lib Dems percentage reduces slightly.

Turn out down from 37,000 in 2005 to 28,000.

7 comments:

JAYMASON said...

I hope you're right, but think Salmond is damaged more than Gordo by the credit crunch as many potential SNP voters now wonder where they'd be as part of a more independent Scotland.It's a no win for anyone with common sense, Lab get in means that Gordo can spend what the fuck he likes without being pulled up, Scots Nats get in brings closer the end of the UK

Daily Referendum said...

Jay,

I don't think it will be bad if the SNP win. I don't think they will push for independence just more independent powers. This must however be balanced out by English votes on English matters.

The Raven said...

I don't agree with the SNP viewpoint at all, but I too am hoping that they will win this. It might seem petty to want a party to lose a by-election just because it will upset their momentum, but in this case it is called for. If Labour win, it will be painted as a great triumph and a further sign of Gordon's amazing powers of coming back from the brink. It's not so much that Labour would win their seat back that irks me; it would be having to put up with Balls, McNulty, Flint, Blears and all the other mentalists in the government telling us that winning a seat that should be as safe as Fort Knox is some sort of achievement.

William Gruff said...

English Votes on English Matters is unworkable Steve. Nothing less than an English Parliament with powers at least equal to that of Scotland's will do.

The most interesting result will, of course, be that of the Conservative Candidate. Maurice Golden's performance, with Labour at an all time low, will indicate whether Grooovey Dave has any chance of being Prime Minister of anything other than England, something he has stated he does not want to be.

Letters From A Tory said...

I disagree. Gordon Brown has seen his political capital rise enough to fend off the SNP, but not by much.

Anonymous said...

Labour 13/10 on betfair, 5/6 on william hill

SNP 6/10 on betfair (7/10 to lay, spot the arb opportunity) and 5/6 on william hill.

I know which odds I would trust. But never underestimate the way the BBC , and much of the media, are bigging up McSnotty as the man who saved the world.

eric said...

Look at the timing of this interest rate cut..
Having failed with the wife n kids ploy,,
they hope to buy the seat.
Drum these inept corrupt labour fools out.
Forever..