I'm tipping David Miliband to oust Gordon Brown by May.

David Miliband is to give the keynote speech at Today's Fabian Society - Change the World conference. The BBC have obviously had the heads-up on his speech, and what David has to say sounds to me like a man setting out his Prime Ministerial stall. There were rumblings before Christmas that Labour MPs were giving Gordon Brown until May to prove himself fit to win the next election. I don't think he's managed to do that, in fact, I think his image is so tainted with incompetence, he most likely never will.

Why did I pick today to make this prediction? Well the main reason is the content and tone of Miliband's speech. I can understand David wanting to talk about our relationship with America and the rest of the world, but why all the talk of Labour needing to show it is excited, not exhausted, by the prospect of a fourth term in government? And why will he point out to the Fabian Society that Labour will need to show it offers more change than the Tories? Many Labour MPs have got to be thinking that Gordon Brown is not the man to portray such a change.

Another reason for Gordon to be ousted could be the imminent cabinet reshuffle. Brown is already seen by some Labour MPs as a liability. The reshuffle, no matter how well it is handled, is only going to put more noses out of joint. I think this could be a factor of Gordon's dithering over the recent donation scandal - He may be in such a precarious position that he does not feel secure enough to sack any of his ministers. Gordon Brown is going. The only question to be answered is when. I'm going for May, and I'm tipping Miliband to be wielding the knife with an eye on the top job.

UPDATE: Betfair are offering odds of 7/1 for Brown to go this spring and William Hill are offering 10/1 for him to go in 2008. Could be worth a punt.

Mayday! Mayday! Gordon Brown is getting the sack on Mayday.

Benedict Brogan has an heartwarming piece over at the Daily Mail website. Apparently Gordon Brown has been given until May to get his sh*t in one sock, or he will be taking the high road back to Kirkcaldy (or will that be the low road to Cowdenbeath). Either way, Blairites are giving Gordon five months to avoid a leadership challenge.

Ben writes (in italics):

The results of his first test as Labour leader in next year's London and local elections will decide Mr Brown's future as party leader, they claim. Senior figures have been holding secret talks to decide a response to the drastic turnaround in Mr Brown's fortunes after a disastrous two months. Mr Blair and his allies are understood to be horrified at the way the Government has lost the commanding lead it enjoyed over the Tories at the end of September. One former minister said: "Those who were elected in 1997, 2001 and 2005 have never known Opposition and find the prospect terrifying."

Oh joy of joys, we could be rid of Brown in five short months. Mind you, considering the damage he's done in the last two months, the country could be well and truly goosed by then. But people will say that it would be better for the Tories if the incompetent Brown stays in place. Well that would be true if there was anyone half decent to replace him. Unfortunately for Labour, Brown is the best of a very bad bunch.

You can read the rest of Benedict Brogan's article by clicking HERE.