Saturday, 19 January 2008

I'm tipping David Miliband to oust Gordon Brown by May.

David Miliband is to give the keynote speech at Today's Fabian Society - Change the World conference. The BBC have obviously had the heads-up on his speech, and what David has to say sounds to me like a man setting out his Prime Ministerial stall. There were rumblings before Christmas that Labour MPs were giving Gordon Brown until May to prove himself fit to win the next election. I don't think he's managed to do that, in fact, I think his image is so tainted with incompetence, he most likely never will.

Why did I pick today to make this prediction? Well the main reason is the content and tone of Miliband's speech. I can understand David wanting to talk about our relationship with America and the rest of the world, but why all the talk of Labour needing to show it is excited, not exhausted, by the prospect of a fourth term in government? And why will he point out to the Fabian Society that Labour will need to show it offers more change than the Tories? Many Labour MPs have got to be thinking that Gordon Brown is not the man to portray such a change.

Another reason for Gordon to be ousted could be the imminent cabinet reshuffle. Brown is already seen by some Labour MPs as a liability. The reshuffle, no matter how well it is handled, is only going to put more noses out of joint. I think this could be a factor of Gordon's dithering over the recent donation scandal - He may be in such a precarious position that he does not feel secure enough to sack any of his ministers. Gordon Brown is going. The only question to be answered is when. I'm going for May, and I'm tipping Miliband to be wielding the knife with an eye on the top job.

UPDATE: Betfair are offering odds of 7/1 for Brown to go this spring and William Hill are offering 10/1 for him to go in 2008. Could be worth a punt.


Mark M Heenan said...

I can't see it myself, it's just far too difficult to oust a sitting Labour leader, let alone Prime Minister, by May. Look how long it took him to get rid of Blair, even after the war. Brown would have to be discovered raping Nye Bevan's corpse to be chucked out that fast. After all, they let Callaghan stay on for four years, and gave Foot three.

That doesn't mean Milliband's not trying though...

Bretwalda Edwin-Higham said...

Definitely - maybe not by May. He is pure Bilderberger and is the new man. For some reason Balls was a bit of a disappointment for them.

William Gruff said...

I doubt it DR. None of the recent scandals surrounding the party he leads, some criminal or nearly so, have forced him out and it seems that only a massive vote of no confidence by party members can shift him. The Labour Party is highly unlikely to offer the Conservatives that.

I think Brown's in for the next two years, unless some 'deranged' patriot shoots the bastard.