Thursday, 6 November 2008

Glenrothes by-election - My prediction - SNP win. polling day

Gordon Brown - Glenrothes by-electionI'm re-posting my prediction for today's by-election:

The Glenrothes by-election is fast approaching, only nine days to polling day. There seems to be some speculation that Labour may just manage to cling onto their (what should be safe) seat.

Form William Hill:
Labour Odds On For Glenrothes!

Labour are catching the SNP in the Glenrothes by-election, according to bookies William Hill who now offer labour at 10/11 with the SNP marginal favourites at 4/5. "Since Gordon Brown went up to Glenrothes we have not taken a penny on the SNP and a Labour victory now looks on the cards," said Hill's spokesman Rupert Adams.
I don't think Labour will hold on. Too much water has passed under the bridge, and as the vote nears, the fact that Gordon Brown and Labour got us into this financial mess will be drummed into the voters by the other parties.

So my prediction

SNP win by more than 1000 votes (receiving around 12,000 votes)
The Conservative percentage increases slightly.
The Lib Dems percentage reduces slightly.

Turn out down from 37,000 in 2005 to 28,000.

Will an SNP win cause the same damage to Gordon Brown as it would have done only a month ago? Unfortunately I don't think it will.


Letters From A Tory said...

Still not sure the SNP will do it. Brown had enjoyed a nice poll bounce recently and Obama might have distracted everyone from Labour's failures over the past few weeks.

Anonymous said...

Let the people speak.
The SNP is the independence party. Independence means a wealthier Scotland and far lower fuel costs. This is the long-term plan.
Any other Labour propaganda is their short-sighted, pathetic status quo. No unionist party will make any difference to the scottish people. Change is long due and we are ready to collect what rightly belongs to us: our oil wealth, our culture and our dignity. Saor Alba.

Anonymous said...

We won't be paying for your olympics either :)