Norwich North - A message from David Cameron.

This is an email sent out from David Cameron to party members on the mailing list:

Dear Steve,

I'm on my way back from Norwich after celebrating Chloe Smith's historic victory in the Norwich North by-election. No-one was predicting a victory on this scale. A Labour majority of five thousand turned into a Conservative majority of over seven thousand.

I'm proud of the campaign Chloe fought here - not just because of what it achieved, but because of how it was conducted. Chloe fought this campaign in a positive way about the issues that really matter to people on the doorstep. In contrast, the Labour campaign was full of lies and half-truths. It's time they learnt the lesson that trying to scare people by lying about your opponents does more damage to you than it does to them.



But people don't just want straight talking on a local campaign level. They also want politicians to tell the truth about the challenges facing us as a country. They want to see that we recognise the change we need to bring to our politics, society and economy. That's why the Party that was frank and open in this by-election was the Party that won it. And that's why we need a General Election, so the rest of the country can have a chance to vote for the Party that will bring that change.

David

Norwich North by election - my prediction.

How important is tomorrow's by election in Norwich North? I think it could be very important. If you look at the constituency's past results in general elections, you will see that the people of Norwich North are a good indication of how the Nation will vote:
Even the one exception (1979) saw Labour's majority slashed from 9,204 down to 3,591 - giving an indication that Norwich North does follow the national trend. So tomorrow's result will be a fairly reliable representation of the nations voting intentions (as of now of course).

So here is my prediction:

Turnout: Turnout in Norwich North as always been fairly high, and if you account for the recent media coverage of the by election, then I think turnout will be high (ish) again: 60-65%.

Share of vote (2005 figures in brackets):

Conservative 42% (33.3%)
Labour 38% (44.9%)
Lib Dem 15% (16.2)
Green 2.5% (2.7)
UKIP 2% (2.4)

That will give the Conservatives a

Majority of about: 2000 (2005 Labour majority of 5,459)

Labour dirty tricks in Waddon council by-election.

From Croydon Today:

Labour has been accused of dirty tricks in the run-up to tomorrow's (Thursday's) Waddon by-election.

As part of its campaign the party is claiming the Tory council has a secret plan to build an incinerator at its Factory Lane recycling site.

But the Tories have firmly denied the claim, and are accusing Labour of scare-mongering to boost its votes.

Labour leader Tony Newman is defiant in his claim, however, ahead of what could be a tight election.

"What I'm saying is the Tories need to stop lying and come clean," he said.

Tory Phil Thomas, who is the council's cabinet member for environment and highways, is outraged at Labour's allegation.

He said: "Basically what they are trying to do is frighten the electorate by scare-mongering and unfortunately a number of elderly people have rung us asking if this is true.

"They are desperate. We would not consider building an incinerator.

"As long as you have a Conservative council you won't have an incinerator in Croydon."

Labour? dirty tricks? never!

BOE Interest rate cut on Glenrothes by-election polling day.

The headlines are saying UK interest rates slashed to 3%. This is without doubt (if the banks pass the cuts on) good news for many of us with variable mortgages, but the timing is just a little suspect. Why today of all days? This cut has been on the books for a couple of weeks, but it happens to be announced the same day that Labour are desperately trying to hold onto what should be their safe seat in Glenrothes. The question has to be asked - did the government have any influence over the supposedly "independent" Bank of England's decision?

Glenrothes by-election - My prediction - SNP win. polling day

I'm re-posting my prediction for today's by-election:

The Glenrothes by-election is fast approaching, only nine days to polling day. There seems to be some speculation that Labour may just manage to cling onto their (what should be safe) seat.

Form William Hill:

Labour Odds On For Glenrothes!

Labour are catching the SNP in the Glenrothes by-election, according to bookies William Hill who now offer labour at 10/11 with the SNP marginal favourites at 4/5. "Since Gordon Brown went up to Glenrothes we have not taken a penny on the SNP and a Labour victory now looks on the cards," said Hill's spokesman Rupert Adams.

I don't think Labour will hold on. Too much water has passed under the bridge, and as the vote nears, the fact that Gordon Brown and Labour got us into this financial mess will be drummed into the voters by the other parties.

So my prediction

SNP win by more than 1000 votes (receiving around 12,000 votes)
The Conservative percentage increases slightly.
The Lib Dems percentage reduces slightly.

Turn out down from 37,000 in 2005 to 28,000.

Will an SNP win cause the same damage to Gordon Brown as it would have done only a month ago? Unfortunately I don't think it will.

Glenrothes by-election - Gordon Brown joins campaign.

Gordon Brown will be campaigning in Glenrothes again today in a flying three hour visit - that will be nice for them. According to a spokesman, Brown will tell factor workers that:

"Big, international companies are more likely to have their headquarters in Scotland because Scotland is part of the UK."

Is that why many UK based companies are leaving in their droves for places like Ireland? I think the truth of the matter is that if Scotland did get independence, then the first thing Alex Salmond would do is to lower his country's level of corporate tax to match that of other competitive nations.

Glenrothes by-election - My prediction - SNP win.

The Glenrothes by-election is fast approaching, only nine days to polling day. There seems to be some speculation that Labour may just manage to cling onto their (what should be safe) seat.

Form William Hill:

Labour Odds On For Glenrothes!

Labour are catching the SNP in the Glenrothes by-election, according to bookies William Hill who now offer labour at 10/11 with the SNP marginal favourites at 4/5. "Since Gordon Brown went up to Glenrothes we have not taken a penny on the SNP and a Labour victory now looks on the cards," said Hill's spokesman Rupert Adams.

I don't think Labour will hold on. Too much water has passed under the bridge, and as the vote nears, the fact that Gordon Brown and Labour got us into this financial mess will be drummed into the voters by the other parties.

So my prediction

SNP win by more than 1000 votes (receiving around 12,000 votes)
The Conservative percentage increases slightly.
The Lib Dems percentage reduces slightly.

Turn out down from 37,000 in 2005 to 28,000.

Glenrothes by-election to be held 6 November 08.

From the BBC:

The Glenrothes by-election will take place on 6 November, Labour MPs have been told.

It has not yet been decided if Prime Minister Gordon Brown will be campaigning ahead of the contest.

The Glenrothes seat was left vacant after the death of John MacDougall, who was fighting the cancer-related disease mesothelioma.

The Labour Party is defending a 10,600 majority from the last general election, in 2005.

Mr MacDougall, a former leader of Fife Council who was first elected to the Commons in 2001, was 60 when he died.

I've got a feeling that this will be closer than it would have been a few weeks ago. Gordon Brown gets us into so much debt that is hard to imagine, he presided over the pathetic regulation of the City, and now it looks like he could get a poll boost for fixing his own incompetence - go figure.

Glasgow East - I feel sorry for Labour Grassroots.

No, I'm not poking fun at the Labour faithful after last night's devastating defeat. I've been a member of the Conservative party for just over a year, and prior to that I was an out and out Labour supporter. Until about 2003 the Labour party could do no wrong in my eyes. However, I did realise that I was making excuses for their apparent inability to manage public spending. I was all for their increased expenditure in our services, and I believed that more money would bring top class health and education systems.

By the 2005 General Election I was becoming very disillusioned, but I was still willing to give Labour the benefit of the doubt. I hoped that after eight years of pumping money into our services and what seemed like endless reforms, that a third term in government would see them finally come to grips with actually managing what they had put in place. Of course I was kidding myself.

By 2006 I was totally disillusioned and was in a political limbo, not knowing which party to support. By 2007 I had been following politics for a while via the web, in particular through political blogs. It was about this time that I realised that my personal beliefs were more in line with Tory policy, in fact their policies were so good that Labour were stealing them.

In the last year the Labour party has crumbled further under Gordon Brown's leadership. Brown is not the man to be running this country, and some of the ridiculous policies he has pushed out have only turned (what should be rock solid) Labour voters against the party. His claims of being a great Chancellor have turned to dust as we realise that in the face of an economic downturn we have massive debt. If we have had ten years of being led by an economic genius, why are we so skint? When times were good Brown gambled with our money, he spent like an American heiress and borrowed more when his credit was maxed out.

In the face of defeat in 2010 it looks like Brown could be adopting a Scorched Earth policy by borrowing more and leaving the Tories with the bill. Unfortunately it looks like we could be stuck with Brown for another two years if the Labour party do not get their act together and put nation before party. If they want to stay in power, Labour need to find a way to get rid of Brown without triggering a General Election which they cannot afford to fight (however two unelected PMs would be hard for the public to swallow). If this proves impossible, then for the good of the nation, Labour need to get rid of Brown, call an election, and accept that they are going to be out of power for at least one term.

Even Labour's most ardent supporters must realise that two more years of Brown will do nothing but harm to this country. He must go.

Glasgow East by-election 2008 results. SNP win?

Well the talk is that there's going to be a re-count, bugger, it looks like it's going to be a late night. It seems the SNP have won it, but Labour aren't giving up without a fight. Good news for the Conservatives comes from the early estimate of a 10% share of the vote, that's up at least 3 points on 2005 and should see them leap-frog the Lib Dems. In fact the word is that the Lib Dems could lose their deposit (Oh dear, how sad, never....).

UPDATE@ 01:45 Looks like it's going to be a full re-count.

UPDATE@ 01:47 Could be a bundle count - Phew!

UPDATE@ 01:57 It's a full recount - Labour have called for it, seeing as there's only a few hundred votes in it. Result in 10 - 15mins. (ish)

UPDATE@ 02:07 Anytime now. Candidates and agents are gathering.

UPDATE@ 02:22 The results: SNP WIN!!! Tories take THIRD!!!

SNP 11,277

Labour 10,912

Conservatives 1,639

Lib Dems 915

Turnout 42%

What now for Gordon Brown and Labour?

Billy Connolly - Old woman on a bus - Hilarious.

Seeing as we've got a Scottish by-election going on this week, I thought I'd treat you to some classic Billy Connolly. The first time I saw this clip I could hardly breath for laughing. Enjoy:

Glasgow East by-election results. My prediction.

Click HERE for the latest news on the by-election.

According to the bookie William Hill, Labour have got the Glasgow East by-election sewn up. I'm not so sure. I think it is entirely possible for the SNP to just nick the seat. Whatever happens I'm 100% positive that Labour's candidate Margaret Curran will not achieve anywhere near their 2005 majority of 13507 (43.7%). In 2005 the turnout was 30,939 (48.2%), but I don't think we will see that many vote in this by election, possibly 35%.

A good result for Labour would be a win with a majority of 5000+.
A fair result for Labour would be a win with a majority of 1000+.
A bad result for Labour would be a win with a majority of less than 1000.
A terrible result for Labour (possibly the end for Gordon Brown) would be to lose.

A good result for the SNP (possibly the end for Gordon Brown) would be a win.
A fair result for the SNP would be loosing by less than 2000 votes.
A bad result for the SNP would be loosing by more than 5000 votes.
A terrible result for the SNP would be loosing by more than 8000 votes.

A excellent result for the Conservatives would be to receive a 15% share of the vote.
A good result for the Conservatives would be to receive a 10% share of the vote.
A bad result for the Conservatives would be to receive less than 7% of the vote.

A excellent result for the Lib Dems would be to receive a 20% share of the vote.
A good result for the Lib Dems would be to receive a 15% share of the vote.
A bad result for the Lib Dems would be to receive less than 12% of the vote.

So here's my prediction for Thursday: Labour win by a majority of less than 2000 over the SNP. Lib Dems 10% of the vote, Conservatives 16% (hopeful I know) of the vote.

The latest odds from William Hill:

Labour Backed To Hold On In Glasgow- Is This A Brown Bounce?

Bookmakers William Hill have shortened the price of a Labour victory in the Glasgow East By-Election from 2/5 to 1/3 as money comes in for the Labour Candidate. The money is good news for Gordon Brown who until today was favourite to leave office this year but he is now out to 2/1 (from 5/4) to go in 2008 and is odds on at 4/6 to lead Labour into the next Election. The long term outlook is still fairly grim with the Conservatives 2/7 favourites and Labour offered at 5/2.

"There is a definite Brown bounce going on, which is good news for Gordon but he has still got a huge amount to do if he is to lead Labour to victory at the next General Election," said Hill's spokesman Rupert Adams.

I think Rupert may be getting a little carried away. There's not going to be any kind of "Brown Bounce" - unless it's his backside hitting the cobbles outside No10.

Labour's Margaret Curran - You couldn't make it up.

I'll say this for Margaret Curran - she's got some neck. In the Labour campaign leaflet below, Margaret criticises the SNP saying "Thousands of drug dealers, thieves and neds will be released onto our streets under SNP plans to empty our jails" Actually what the SNP plan to do is reduce the number of sentences of under six months handed out by using community service and fines as an alternative. But what really gets me is how she can criticise the SNP when Labour are doing far, far worse.


Maybe Margaret should read this article from the Independent and reconsider her campaign leaflet design:

Nearly 29,000 criminals have been freed from prison early in the first 11 months of an emergency scheme to beat jail overcrowding, it was announced yesterday.

Figures released by Justice Secretary Jack Straw showed there were 2,532 offenders freed up to 18 days early in May, bringing the total to 28,879.

The scheme has already exceeded the government's original estimate of how many inmates would be freed in the first year.

Officials had predicted 25,500 criminals would be freed in 12 months but that total was breached in April's figures, just 10 months into operation.

Last week it was revealed that one of the freed inmates is alleged to have raped someone.

The alleged attacker would have still been behind bars at the time if the early release scheme had not been in force.

Mr Straw has also been forced to make emergency changes to the rules of the scheme after it emerged that two terrorists had been freed early.

Shadow justice secretary Nick Herbert said: "After a year of this appalling scheme the figures just get worse - more criminals released early, more violent offenders and more unnecessary victims of crime.

"The Government promised that this policy which is so undermining confidence in our criminal justice system would only be temporary - but if it will only be reviewed in September 2009, almost 70,000 prisoners will have been released early.

"It should be scrapped immediately before any more harm is done."

Currently, 89 offenders recalled to prison after being freed under the scheme are on the run.

Guido has spotted a problem with Margaret's campaign site.

William Hill - No shortage of cash for SNP to beat Labour (Glasgow East).

From William Hill:

THE GLASGOW East by-election is shaping up to be the biggest betting by-election ever, say bookmakers William Hill. 'We are doing tremendous business in a constituency which would normally attract very little betting money as, on the formbook,Labour should be unbackable to win here - yet there is as much money for them to lose as win' said Hill's spokesman Graham Sharpe.

Hills currently make Labour 2/5 favourites to win the by-election, after taking the biggest single bet struck so far, of £2200 for them to win, while the SNP are now quoted at 7/4 - and have recently attracted two bets of £1000; the Conservatives are 33/1 and the Lib Dems 50/1. 'Although this is Labour's third safest seat in Scotland there has been no shortage of cash for the SNP to beat them and this could yet turn out to be the first by-election to produce a betting turnover of £100,000' said Sharpe. 'Labour were favourites when we opened the book, then they became joint favourites with the SNP, then the SNP became clear favourites, then they were joint favourites again and now Labour have gone back ahead.'

TO WIN GLASGOW EAST BY-ELECTION: 2/5 Labour; 7/4 SNP; 33/1 Conservative; 50/1Lib Dem.

It's worth noting that Hills have the Conservatives beating the Lib Dems into third place. This is a reversal of the 2005 General election which saw the Lib Dems on 12% and the Tories on 7%. It also contradicts the latest ICM poll from the Telegraph (Lib Dem 9% Con 7%).

Conservatives to take second place in Glasgow East.

William Hill are giving odds of 33/1 for the Conservatives to win the Glasgow East By-Election. I think those are very generous odds and William Hill may regret them. I think there a chance (though very slim) that the Tories could take Glasgow East.

However, I think that there is a very good chance of the Tories coming second to the SNP. A recent poll as put the SNP in front of Labour and the Conservatives not a million miles behind them. Labour are losing a lot of support in Scotland. The question is - where will that support go?

I think that those polled recently may have some difficulty admitting that they are intending to vote Tory. However, when they are alone in that polling booth with a ballot paper and a pen, they may just put an X next to the little blue tree.

UPDATE: From Patrick Hennessy:

Tomorrow's Sunday Telegraph reveals the findings of the first opinion poll to be conducted exclusively within the Glasgow East constituency ahead of the crucial by-election there on 24 July. Politicians from all sides will be studying the results from the ICM survey avidly - none more so than Gordon Brown who has faced claims he could be forced out of Number 10 if Labour loses.

I'll post the results of the poll when they are published later tonight.

UPDATE 2: The ICM survey for the Sunday Telegraph puts the Labour party on 47 per cent of the vote with its nearest challenger, the Scottish National Party (SNP), on 33 per cent.
Liberal Democrats are on nine per cent and the Conservatives on seven per cent.

See, the Tories are looking good for second place.

Haltemprice and Howden - David Davis could get more votes than in 2005.

David Davis could well pull off a decent if not great result in the Haltemprice and Howden By-Election. Early estimates put the turn out at 35% which means that it is possible for David to beat the number of votes he got in 2005 (22,792, but it would be close). This kind of result would of course be excellent considering Labour bottled it.

From the BBC (before they realised the turnout was so high):

Could the former shadow home secretary actually get more votes than he did in the 2005 general election? Impossible say the experts. If he does get more than 22,792 votes it will not only be a massive vindication of his campaign against 42 day detention of terror suspects, it will also confirm him as a major player at Westminster once again and ensure civil liberties is a major issue at the next general election. It will also leave a few Westminster pundits with large amounts of egg on their faces - surely reason enough to tune into the election coverage later, just on the off chance...

UPDATE 0245: Turn out was 35% and David Davis was the clear winner with 17119 votes. I think that can be taken to be a good result.

David Davis - Most Unlikely Civil Liberties Defender.

I just love this from Billy Ruffian: David Davis should be proud.

Most Unlikely Civil Liberties Defender Of All

Calling Haltemprice and Howden - please vote for liberty.

Today you the residents of Haltemprice and Howden have a unique chance to send the government a clear message. With each vote you cast in favour of David Davis you are telling our political masters that enough is enough - that they have taken your freedom and liberty for granted for the last time. To send this message, you will need to vote, so I beg you to please send a message from the nation to Brown.

It could you being fined for over filling your bin. It could you that gets locked up for six weeks without charge (innocent or not). It could be your DNA held on the national database without ever being found guilty of a crime. Your child could be one of the many thousands of innocent kids held on that same database. Gordon Brown will soon force you to carry an ID card, but to add insult to injury, you will be paying for the privilege through your tax to set up the scheme, and you will be paying direct from your pocket to buy your own card.

Did you know that you can walk the length of London without ever being "off camera", what's it like in your town? what will it be like in the future if Gordon's government are not stopped? Did you know that every time you ring the council, or when they ring you, that you are being recorded whether you give permission or not? Did you know that there are 266 powers allowing officials to enter your home? Whatever happened to our castles?

So please, I beg you again to go out and vote me, yourself and the rest of the nation.


UPDATE: From the Telegraph: "Despite fears that a tiny turnout might affect the result, voters in Howden were queuing outside the Shire Hall in the sunshine as the booths opened at 7am." - I hope this is an indicator for the rest of the day.

What Fraser Nelson saw in Glasgow East

Over on the Coffee House Blog, Fraser Nelson has posted on his visit to Glasgow East. His story, both haunting and sad, takes me back to my youth. According to Gordon Brown we have had 11 years of economic growth and stability, and yet there are areas of our country where life is just one slow, miserable march towards death. A fate that only a lucky few escape. Here is a little of what Fraser found in Glasgow East:

Our final stop was a high rise tower block of flats next to Celtic Park. We were let in to film the view from an empty flat on the top floor. On the way in, we passed a man staggering by clutching a can of Special Brew and children behind him, calling him 'dad'. Each child had two dogs. Lifts come seldom, so plenty piled on the one taking us to the 29th floor. We were joined by a chap who was clearly a drug user, he asked the cameraman how much his equipment cost. "A fair amount" he said. He then offered to "steal" it from him, and split the proceeds. He declined. This guy couldn't have been any more than 20, yet he looked like a ghost. This was Parkhead South where life expectancy is 62 years (and falling). Life expectancy is higher in both Uzbekistan and Bangladesh.

You can read Fraser's full story by clicking HERE.

Gordon Brown now only 3/1 to be gone by year's end.

From William Hill:

HAPPY ANNIVERSARY, MR BROWN - YOU'RE ON THE WAY OUT

BOOKMAKERS William Hill have cut the odds about Gordon Brown being out of office as Labour leader before the next General Election takes place, from 5/4 to 11/10 following the Henley by-election.
And Hills have also slashed the odds about him standing down before the end of this year to 3/1 from 5/1.
'Although Mr Brown is a slight odds on chance at 4/6 still to be leader when the General Election comes round we haven't taken a single bet of £100 or more for him to do so for months' said Hill's spokesman Graham Sharpe.
LABOUR are now 5/2 with William Hill to win the next General Election - the longest odds they have been since coming to power in 1997 - and Hills now make the Tories red hot favourites at 2/7 to win the next Election - their shortest odds since LOSING power. The Lib Dems are 100/1 outsiders.
Hills offer 5/1 that Labour WILL put up a candidate against David Davis at the forthcoming by-election.

WILLIAM HILL:
YEAR OF GORDON BROWN DEPARTURE FROM PM OFFICE

2008 3/1
2009 5/2
2010 5/4
2011 33/1
2012 50/1
2013 50/1
2014 20/1
2015 20/1
2016 20/1
2017 16/1