Saturday, 12 July 2008

Conservatives to take second place in Glasgow East.

William Hill are giving odds of 33/1 for the Conservatives to win the Glasgow East By-Election. I think those are very generous odds and William Hill may regret them. I think there a chance (though very slim) that the Tories could take Glasgow East.

However, I think that there is a very good chance of the Tories coming second to the SNP. A recent poll as put the SNP in front of Labour and the Conservatives not a million miles behind them. Labour are losing a lot of support in Scotland. The question is - where will that support go?

I think that those polled recently may have some difficulty admitting that they are intending to vote Tory. However, when they are alone in that polling booth with a ballot paper and a pen, they may just put an X next to the little blue tree.

UPDATE: From Patrick Hennessy:

Tomorrow's Sunday Telegraph reveals the findings of the first opinion poll to be conducted exclusively within the Glasgow East constituency ahead of the crucial by-election there on 24 July. Politicians from all sides will be studying the results from the ICM survey avidly - none more so than Gordon Brown who has faced claims he could be forced out of Number 10 if Labour loses.

I'll post the results of the poll when they are published later tonight.

UPDATE 2: The ICM survey for the Sunday Telegraph puts the Labour party on 47 per cent of the vote with its nearest challenger, the Scottish National Party (SNP), on 33 per cent.
Liberal Democrats are on nine per cent and the Conservatives on seven per cent.

See, the Tories are looking good for second place.

8 comments:

Alex said...

Frankly, odds of 100-1 wouldn't be generous enough to make me back the Tories in Glasgow East, even for second place.

Your post is a triumph of wishful thinking over realistic expectation...

Anonymous said...

Are you on the glue?!

Have you ever been to Glasgow East? A Tory voter is like a hen's tooth!

Seriously - that's gave me the best laugh of the campaign!

Its a two horse race between SNP and Labour with all the rest fighting for third spot.

I imagine the small Conservative vote will hold up since they're getting national publicity but the Liberal Democrat vote will crumble to the SNP.

If the Socialist vote wasn't split between SSP and Solidarity they might have challenged for third place instead. I doubt they'll come anywhere now.

Anonymous said...

Do you live in la-la land pal? William Hill could have safely given odds of 10,000-1 for a Tory win in Glasgow East and not lost a minutes kip worrying about losing their money.

A bet that Elvis will turn up alive riding the Loch Ness Monster up the Clyde is probably a better bet than you guys winning there.

Anonymous said...

The only people driven to vote for David Cameron's Tories are those he insults - "sour little Englanders". And they don't have much choice.

William Gruff said...

Although you were very nearly spot on with your prediction of the outcome at Nantwich and Crewe, Steve, I think you're being a little too optimistic with Glasgow East. Have you ever been there?

Daily Referendum said...

Mr Gruff,

Yes I've been a few times when I was in the Navy. Jolly nice chaps, they like Gin, tiffin and fox hunting if memory serves.

Andrew Allison said...

If we win in Glasgow East, I will show my arse in Woolworths window.

That'll get them rushing to the polling stations in their droves!

Thomas Cochrane said...

A slight increase in the vote share.
Pretty much as everyone expected.

I met Ian Duncan Smith in Garthamlock last year. Was surprised at what an engaging and funny man he was, with a genuine desire to understand the 'forth world' that is Glasgow East.

On his visit during the by election someone shouted "we don't have Tories here!"- he didn't miss a beat in replying "and look at what it has got you".