William Hill are giving odds of 33/1 for the Conservatives to win the Glasgow East By-Election. I think those are very generous odds and William Hill may regret them. I think there a chance (though very slim) that the Tories could take Glasgow East.
However, I think that there is a very good chance of the Tories coming second to the SNP. A recent poll as put the SNP in front of Labour and the Conservatives not a million miles behind them. Labour are losing a lot of support in Scotland. The question is - where will that support go?
I think that those polled recently may have some difficulty admitting that they are intending to vote Tory. However, when they are alone in that polling booth with a ballot paper and a pen, they may just put an X next to the little blue tree.
UPDATE: From Patrick Hennessy:
Tomorrow's Sunday Telegraph reveals the findings of the first opinion poll to be conducted exclusively within the Glasgow East constituency ahead of the crucial by-election there on 24 July. Politicians from all sides will be studying the results from the ICM survey avidly - none more so than Gordon Brown who has faced claims he could be forced out of Number 10 if Labour loses.
I'll post the results of the poll when they are published later tonight.
UPDATE 2: The ICM survey for the Sunday Telegraph puts the Labour party on 47 per cent of the vote with its nearest challenger, the Scottish National Party (SNP), on 33 per cent.
Liberal Democrats are on nine per cent and the Conservatives on seven per cent.
See, the Tories are looking good for second place.