Osborne's energy discount card will help pay the bills.

It's been a sad fact of recent history that the less money you have, the more you have to pay out for your basic utilities. So George Osborne's idea of an energy discount card is just the kind of policy needed to redress the balance between the well off and the not so well off. The card will enable those without a bank account to receive the same discounts as those paying by direct debit. George says this could help four million people save up to £100 a year.

The scheme has the backing of both the energy industry and Theresa Perchard, Director of Policy at the Citizens Advice Bureau. Theresa said: [The Tory policy] "offers to put more money in the pockets of poorer consumers by reducing their outgoings and providing for weekly budgeting to help avoid debt".

This is yet another great idea from Osborne's team, and it is just the kind of policy needed in these difficult times. Keep them coming.

Michael Gove is so wrong about "Lads Mags"

What's this? Steve Green disagreeing with a Tory MP? Bit of a shocker eh?

This is about a subject that could be seen as niff naff and trivia, but it could have massive ramifications for the Conservative party. If he is not VERY careful Michael Gove could be positioning himself to alienate several million male voters. In a keynote speech Michael will say:

"Our strategies for dealing with teenage pregnancy need to be focused more on young men and their responsibilities." That's why I believe we need to ask tough questions about the instant-hit hedonism celebrated by the modern men's magazines targeted at younger males. "Titles such as Nuts and Zoo paint a picture of women as permanently, lasciviously, uncomplicatedly available."

I'm sorry but Michael is plain wrong. The women in these mags are seen by the people who read them as what they are - very beautiful women who are way out of the league of most of the men looking at them. It's a natural instinct to want to look at these women, but we realise that it's just a dream enhanced by great makeup and a liberal use of the airbrush. These women are not being exploited, they are business women making a very good living from their looks. Michael needs to avoid portraying the Conservative party as the party of the Victorian Dad. There are many reasons that may cause families to break up and I imagine that Lads Mags come way, way down the list.

ToryClub Forum gets underway!

Matt Jones has created a forum for Tories going by the name of ToryClub. Yesterday was the forum's first day and it already has 21 members and discussions have already started. I think this forum will really take off and could be a great meeting place for like minded political enthusiasts.

You can veiw the forum by clicking HERE or you can register by clicking HERE.

Jonathon Isaby joins ConservativeHome.

I'm a bit late with this, but life has been very hectic of late. To the point - I would like to congratulate Jonathon Isaby for being the successful candidate to take over the post of co-editor over on Conhome. I've linked to and read the Three line whip blog for quite a while now, and I'm sure Jonathon will add new character to Con home.

Here's what Tim Montgomerie has to say:

"I am delighted to announce that Jonathan Isaby will be joining ConservativeHome. Jonathan was offered the post of co-editor yesterday by Stephan Shakespeare, ConservativeHome's publisher, and he has accepted. 164 applications were received to succeed Samuel Coates, who was recently appointed as a speechwriter to David Cameron. Sam formally ceased to work for ConservativeHome last Saturday. A start date for Jonathan has not yet been fixed.

Jonathan has been writing about politics at The Daily Telegraph for five years, latterly as editor of the paper's Three Line Whip column and a regular contributor to the Three Line Whip blog. Before joining the Telegraph, he was a senior political analyst in the BBC's Westminster newsroom. He also writes a monthly column for GQ magazine and his first book, Boris v Ken: How Boris Johnson Won London, was published in June. Jonathan is a former chairman of the University of York Conservative Association and was on the founding national committee of Conservative Future in 1998-99.

Miliband gets Fact-Checked by C4 News (Apparently his pants are on fire).

During his article for the Guardian, David Miliband made the following claim:

The Tories say society is broken. By what measure? Rising crime? No, crime has fallen more in the past 10 years than at any time in the past century.

Well those nice people at Channel 4 News have FactChecked David's claim. And surprise, surprise, Miliband wasn't exactly telling us the truth.

See C4's great FactCheck HERE.

Bad news for Gordon Brown in marginal seats.

Patrick Hennessy over at the Telegraph is hinting at some very bad news for Gordon Brown. It seems the Sunday Telegraph has obtained details of a new opinion poll conducted in 30 of Britain's most marginal parliamentary seats. Patrick says the details will be published later and they will show a totally different picture to last year's Labour lead of 6%.

I'll publish the details (and comment) when they appear.

UPDATE: Those results have come through and the Tories are on 41%, that's 24% ahead of Labour on 17%. What's worse for Brown and Labour is the fact that the LibDems are 1% ahead of them on 18%.

The poll was carried out for Flying Matters and will appear in the Sunday Telegraph. 1,054 voters were polled in key marginal seats.

Jesus. Can it get any worse for Brown? I read somewhere today (I'll provide a link if I remember where I read it) that only a minority of Labour MPs have second jobs to fall back on. This news on the back of recent disasters will no doubt have many a Labour MP wondering how they are going to pay the mortgage.

Gordon is a goner.

David Cameron - A year in parliamentry politics - video.

This a great video from webcameron. It documents what has been a excellent year for the Conservative party and how it went wrong for Gordon Brown.

Glasgow East by-election 2008 results. SNP win?

Well the talk is that there's going to be a re-count, bugger, it looks like it's going to be a late night. It seems the SNP have won it, but Labour aren't giving up without a fight. Good news for the Conservatives comes from the early estimate of a 10% share of the vote, that's up at least 3 points on 2005 and should see them leap-frog the Lib Dems. In fact the word is that the Lib Dems could lose their deposit (Oh dear, how sad, never....).

UPDATE@ 01:45 Looks like it's going to be a full re-count.

UPDATE@ 01:47 Could be a bundle count - Phew!

UPDATE@ 01:57 It's a full recount - Labour have called for it, seeing as there's only a few hundred votes in it. Result in 10 - 15mins. (ish)

UPDATE@ 02:07 Anytime now. Candidates and agents are gathering.

UPDATE@ 02:22 The results: SNP WIN!!! Tories take THIRD!!!

SNP 11,277

Labour 10,912

Conservatives 1,639

Lib Dems 915

Turnout 42%

What now for Gordon Brown and Labour?

Glasgow East by-election results. My prediction.

Click HERE for the latest news on the by-election.

According to the bookie William Hill, Labour have got the Glasgow East by-election sewn up. I'm not so sure. I think it is entirely possible for the SNP to just nick the seat. Whatever happens I'm 100% positive that Labour's candidate Margaret Curran will not achieve anywhere near their 2005 majority of 13507 (43.7%). In 2005 the turnout was 30,939 (48.2%), but I don't think we will see that many vote in this by election, possibly 35%.

A good result for Labour would be a win with a majority of 5000+.
A fair result for Labour would be a win with a majority of 1000+.
A bad result for Labour would be a win with a majority of less than 1000.
A terrible result for Labour (possibly the end for Gordon Brown) would be to lose.

A good result for the SNP (possibly the end for Gordon Brown) would be a win.
A fair result for the SNP would be loosing by less than 2000 votes.
A bad result for the SNP would be loosing by more than 5000 votes.
A terrible result for the SNP would be loosing by more than 8000 votes.

A excellent result for the Conservatives would be to receive a 15% share of the vote.
A good result for the Conservatives would be to receive a 10% share of the vote.
A bad result for the Conservatives would be to receive less than 7% of the vote.

A excellent result for the Lib Dems would be to receive a 20% share of the vote.
A good result for the Lib Dems would be to receive a 15% share of the vote.
A bad result for the Lib Dems would be to receive less than 12% of the vote.

So here's my prediction for Thursday: Labour win by a majority of less than 2000 over the SNP. Lib Dems 10% of the vote, Conservatives 16% (hopeful I know) of the vote.

The latest odds from William Hill:

Labour Backed To Hold On In Glasgow- Is This A Brown Bounce?

Bookmakers William Hill have shortened the price of a Labour victory in the Glasgow East By-Election from 2/5 to 1/3 as money comes in for the Labour Candidate. The money is good news for Gordon Brown who until today was favourite to leave office this year but he is now out to 2/1 (from 5/4) to go in 2008 and is odds on at 4/6 to lead Labour into the next Election. The long term outlook is still fairly grim with the Conservatives 2/7 favourites and Labour offered at 5/2.

"There is a definite Brown bounce going on, which is good news for Gordon but he has still got a huge amount to do if he is to lead Labour to victory at the next General Election," said Hill's spokesman Rupert Adams.

I think Rupert may be getting a little carried away. There's not going to be any kind of "Brown Bounce" - unless it's his backside hitting the cobbles outside No10.

What kind of Tory are you? poll results.

The turn out on my poll to find out "What kind of Tory are you" wasn't great but I think it did show that most Tory bloggers have similar opinions on the three subjects voted on.

The poll is still open if you want to add your vote.

Poll: What kind of Tory are you?

When you drift around the various Tory blogs, you find that we have pretty similar opinions on Climate Change, an English Parliament and Europe. To this end I thought I would put this theory to the test. For the record, I selected A, B and C.

What kind of Tory are you?
	A) Are you for an English Parliament (only)?
	B) Are you a Climate Change Sceptic (only)?
	C) Are you against the Lisbon Treaty (only)?
	A and B?
	B and C
	A and C
	A, B and C
	None of the above.
pollcode.com free polls

Live Debate on MPs Expenses - pigs in the trough.

The parliamentary debate on MPs Expenses is now taking place and you can watch it by clicking HERE. You will not believe the number of little piggies squealing at the thought of losing their access to the trough.

BBC are spinning for Gordon Brown on expenses debate.

If you were to read the BBC's article on the expenses debate taking place in parliament today, you would believe that the debate was all Labour's idea. I would like to know who wrote the article, because whoever it may be is obviously an out and out Labour supporter. Reading the first five or six paragraphs you would never guess that it was David Cameron who called for this debate and that it is the Conservatives who are going to publish their expense claims, in detail, for the first three months of this year. Labour rushed out their proposal last night in an attempt to avoid embarrassment.

The author of the article points out that Gordon Brown was disappointed that the last vote to abolish the list was lost because it was his MPs (including no less than 34 ministers) who voted against it. What he failed to point out was that Brown couldn't have been that disappointed seeing has he didn't turn up for the vote, or that his Whips were nodding Labour MPs towards the NO Lobby. He also didn't mention that the Conservatives believe that Gordon Brown let his MPs vote against expense transparency in return for accepting an inflation matching pay rise.

The author of the article says: "Labour say they are serious about their proposed reforms and will try to rush them on to the statute books before the summer recess." However, there is no mention of the various statements made by David Cameron in the last 24 hrs. You'd think that the BBC would be interested in why Cameron has called this debate, or at least you would think the public might want to know. So I'll help the BBC out. This is what Cameron had to say about calling this debate on MPs expenses:

"Some might say calling another debate on this subject is an unusual step. "But I feel passionately that the Conservative party must carry on showing a proper lead and do everything we can to correct this flawed arrangement."

William Hill - No shortage of cash for SNP to beat Labour (Glasgow East).

From William Hill:

THE GLASGOW East by-election is shaping up to be the biggest betting by-election ever, say bookmakers William Hill. 'We are doing tremendous business in a constituency which would normally attract very little betting money as, on the formbook,Labour should be unbackable to win here - yet there is as much money for them to lose as win' said Hill's spokesman Graham Sharpe.

Hills currently make Labour 2/5 favourites to win the by-election, after taking the biggest single bet struck so far, of £2200 for them to win, while the SNP are now quoted at 7/4 - and have recently attracted two bets of £1000; the Conservatives are 33/1 and the Lib Dems 50/1. 'Although this is Labour's third safest seat in Scotland there has been no shortage of cash for the SNP to beat them and this could yet turn out to be the first by-election to produce a betting turnover of £100,000' said Sharpe. 'Labour were favourites when we opened the book, then they became joint favourites with the SNP, then the SNP became clear favourites, then they were joint favourites again and now Labour have gone back ahead.'

TO WIN GLASGOW EAST BY-ELECTION: 2/5 Labour; 7/4 SNP; 33/1 Conservative; 50/1Lib Dem.

It's worth noting that Hills have the Conservatives beating the Lib Dems into third place. This is a reversal of the 2005 General election which saw the Lib Dems on 12% and the Tories on 7%. It also contradicts the latest ICM poll from the Telegraph (Lib Dem 9% Con 7%).

David Cameron's speech to the CBI 15th July 2008.

Speaking at the CBI, David Cameron said:

"In March, I gave a speech about the Conservative strategy to deal with the deteriorating financial situation. The immediate backdrop was the credit crunch and the crisis in the city. The credit crunch has now spread - from the City and into every home and business in Britain. Hundreds of thousands of families have the threat of negative equity hanging over them - and their future security.

Businesses are cutting back and unemployment creeping up. And people are desperately trying to make ends meet because of the rising cost of living. I hear it in the conversations I have, the emails I read, the letters I get. At first, they were angry - angry with a Government that seemed to be ignoring that there was a problem with the economy...

…that the cost of living was rocketing and the housing market was falling.

Recently, the tone has shifted. Now, people are just incredibly worried - worried about their families and worried about their future.

The other week, I got this email from Janie Anderson.

She said:

"I work 40 hours a week, my husband 48. My salary doesn't quite pay the mortgage each month. It is currently costing us £70 for fuel (between us) each week to get to work. We had two cars, we now have the one because of the running costs. My husband works nights and me days so we can car share, we pass each other in the hallway in the morning and again in the evening… We have brought up our kids, we should be starting to enjoy ourselves but this is not possible because of the high living costs."

Janie's story is the real economy.

Not a place of statistics that this Government loves trotting out - but one of lived experiences.

Not a place of academic theories that so obsess Gordon Brown - but one of people's hopes and ambitions, and fear and anxieties.

Janie - and others up and down the country in her situation - don't want sympathy.

They just want to know - what are you going to do?

How are you going to turn things around?

You can read David's full speech by clicking HERE.

Live by the knife - die by the knife.

What drives your average teenager to carry a knife? Experts believe that the fear of being stabbed or attacked comes top of the list. What causes this fear? Well apparently if the media make it known that there are a lot of people out there carrying knives and stabbing people, you would naturally want your own knife for protection.

So we have a vicious circle. A few kids get stabbed and the media report it. This causes more kids to carry knives and more kids get stabbed. This goes on and on until the circle is broken. So how do we break the circle? Well for one thing we can ignore the rubbish the government have dreamt up. Wishy washy, lefty liberal ideas have had more than the fair chance in this country, and they have failed.

Kids need to know that you are more likely to get stabbed if you carry a knife. Stop and search needs to be increased and random lockdowns of schools for searches should be brought in. There needs to be a real deterrent, not some extreme sentence that makes a good political sound bite, but which will never be implemented. If anyone under sixteen is caught with a knife they should receive an automatic, zero tolerance 3 month sentence (first offence). Anyone over sixteen should get an automatic 6 month sentence, unless they can prove the knife is required for their occupation (first offence). The sentence should be automatically doubled for any re-offence.

It's wishy washy liberalism that has got us in this sad position. It's time we went back to discipline, respect and morality.

UPDATE: Dave has left a comment on this post and you won't believe what the government have thought up to tackle youth crime.

Sent from my BlackBerry® wireless device

Conservatives 22 point lead in Sunday Times YouGov Poll.

The latest YouGov poll for The Sunday Times puts the Conservatives on 47%, Labour on 25% and the Liberal Democrats 18%. It seems talk of a Labour comeback last week were a little premature.

There's also bad news for Brown on the road tax scam: 64% said it was another example of a retrospective “stealth” tax dressed up as a green measure.

Conservatives to take second place in Glasgow East.

William Hill are giving odds of 33/1 for the Conservatives to win the Glasgow East By-Election. I think those are very generous odds and William Hill may regret them. I think there a chance (though very slim) that the Tories could take Glasgow East.

However, I think that there is a very good chance of the Tories coming second to the SNP. A recent poll as put the SNP in front of Labour and the Conservatives not a million miles behind them. Labour are losing a lot of support in Scotland. The question is - where will that support go?

I think that those polled recently may have some difficulty admitting that they are intending to vote Tory. However, when they are alone in that polling booth with a ballot paper and a pen, they may just put an X next to the little blue tree.

UPDATE: From Patrick Hennessy:

Tomorrow's Sunday Telegraph reveals the findings of the first opinion poll to be conducted exclusively within the Glasgow East constituency ahead of the crucial by-election there on 24 July. Politicians from all sides will be studying the results from the ICM survey avidly - none more so than Gordon Brown who has faced claims he could be forced out of Number 10 if Labour loses.

I'll post the results of the poll when they are published later tonight.

UPDATE 2: The ICM survey for the Sunday Telegraph puts the Labour party on 47 per cent of the vote with its nearest challenger, the Scottish National Party (SNP), on 33 per cent.
Liberal Democrats are on nine per cent and the Conservatives on seven per cent.

See, the Tories are looking good for second place.

Michael Gove - Give teachers powers to keep order.

From the Conservative Party website:

Gove: We'll give teachers the powers they need to keep order.

Commenting on the General Teaching Council for England study, which found that four in ten new teachers leave the profession within two years with pupil discipline the most common reason for doing so, Shadow Children's Secretary Michael Gove said:

"The Government's failure to deal with discipline has seen over 400,000 suspensions from our schools in a year and huge numbers of teachers leaving the profession. We'll give teachers the powers they need to keep order and we'll change the law to give headteachers the legal power to ban and search for any items they think may cause violence or disruption."

With that in mind:

Should we bring back corporal punishment in School (With parental permission)?
	Yes for 11 year olds and over.
	Yes for 13 year olds and over.
	Yes for 15 year olds and over.
	No.
pollcode.com free polls

William Hill - Conservative landslide at General Election.

From William Hill:

BROWN BACKED TO GO THIS YEAR AS TORY LANDSLIDE ODDS HALVED

WILLIAM Hill have halved the odds about the Conservatives winning a landslide victory at the next General Election - cutting the odds about them winning 375 or more seats from 5/1 to 5/2 - while Gordon Brown has been shortened from 3/1 to 11/10 to leave office during 2008. He is 5/4 to go in 2010, 4/1 in 2009. Brown is also 5/6 NOT to lead Labour into the next General Election.

JOINT FAVOURITES FOR GLASGOW EAST

LABOUR are 5/6 joint favourites to win the Glasgow East by election with William Hill, despite reportedly havcing to find another candidate. Hills also offer the SNP at 5/6 and have the Tories and Lib Dems both at 50/1.

NEXT SCOTS LAB LEADER

William Hill make Andy Kerr 2/5 favourite to be the next Scottish Labour leader. They also offer 4/1 Margaret Curran; 6/1 Iain Grey; 14/1 Cathy Jameson; 20/1 Charlie Gordon.

HALTEMPRICE ODDS

JILL SAWARD, standing as an Independent candidate, has been backed to receive more votes than any candidate at the Haltemprice by election other than David Davis, with William Hill cutting her from 33/1 to 5/1 joint second favourite in the market in which Hills make Green candidate S Oakes 2/5 favourite, with National Front candidate Culnane 5/1. The Monster Raving Loony Party is 50/1 with former pop star Ronnie Carroll at 66/1.

TORIES HOT FAVOURITES

THE CONSERVATIVES are 1/ 4 favourites to win the next General Election with Hills who make Labour 11/4 - their longest odds since winning power - and the Lib Dems 100/1.