Tuesday 22 July 2008

Glasgow East by-election results. My prediction.

Click HERE for the latest news on the by-election.

According to the bookie William Hill, Labour have got the Glasgow East by-election sewn up. I'm not so sure. I think it is entirely possible for the SNP to just nick the seat. Whatever happens I'm 100% positive that Labour's candidate Margaret Curran will not achieve anywhere near their 2005 majority of 13507 (43.7%). In 2005 the turnout was 30,939 (48.2%), but I don't think we will see that many vote in this by election, possibly 35%.

A good result for Labour would be a win with a majority of 5000+.
A fair result for Labour would be a win with a majority of 1000+.
A bad result for Labour would be a win with a majority of less than 1000.
A terrible result for Labour (possibly the end for Gordon Brown) would be to lose.

A good result for the SNP (possibly the end for Gordon Brown) would be a win.
A fair result for the SNP would be loosing by less than 2000 votes.
A bad result for the SNP would be loosing by more than 5000 votes.
A terrible result for the SNP would be loosing by more than 8000 votes.

A excellent result for the Conservatives would be to receive a 15% share of the vote.
A good result for the Conservatives would be to receive a 10% share of the vote.
A bad result for the Conservatives would be to receive less than 7% of the vote.

A excellent result for the Lib Dems would be to receive a 20% share of the vote.
A good result for the Lib Dems would be to receive a 15% share of the vote.
A bad result for the Lib Dems would be to receive less than 12% of the vote.

So here's my prediction for Thursday: Labour win by a majority of less than 2000 over the SNP. Lib Dems 10% of the vote, Conservatives 16% (hopeful I know) of the vote.

The latest odds from William Hill:

Labour Backed To Hold On In Glasgow- Is This A Brown Bounce?

Bookmakers William Hill have shortened the price of a Labour victory in the Glasgow East By-Election from 2/5 to 1/3 as money comes in for the Labour Candidate. The money is good news for Gordon Brown who until today was favourite to leave office this year but he is now out to 2/1 (from 5/4) to go in 2008 and is odds on at 4/6 to lead Labour into the next Election. The long term outlook is still fairly grim with the Conservatives 2/7 favourites and Labour offered at 5/2.

"There is a definite Brown bounce going on, which is good news for Gordon but he has still got a huge amount to do if he is to lead Labour to victory at the next General Election," said Hill's spokesman Rupert Adams.

I think Rupert may be getting a little carried away. There's not going to be any kind of "Brown Bounce" - unless it's his backside hitting the cobbles outside No10.

4 comments:

John M Ward said...

Interesting...

My own (non-expert) thoughts have been a Labour win of under 3,000 majority, though it could be closer than that -- and I agree that the SNP could yet 'steal' this one.

I had it as a toss-up between LibDem and Conservative for third place, expecting them to be fairly close. A low turnout makes the variables larger, so almost anything could happen on the day, I suppose...

Daily Referendum said...

John,

Yes I think it will be close also. And I think the conservatives might just pip the Lib Dems into third place.

Andrew Allison said...

Labour will win, with a majority under 5000; I am sure about that.

The Conservatives will poll under 10%, but not lose their deposit. The Lib Dems will be higher.

This is not about the Tories or the LibDems. There is more chance of Nick Clegg becoming the next prime minister, than the Conservatives making any significant headway in the East End of Glasgow. This is about which left-wing party the voters are going to choose. They have always voted Labour. On Thursday, they will protest by switching to the SNP. At the next general election, they will switch back to Labour again. Remember, this part of Glasgow is the home of the Scottish Labour Movement.

Anonymous said...

Consertatives will get less than 5% of the vote and Lib Dems no more. I work for the SNP gathering statistics and we expect the result to be close. At least we will receive 1/3 of the overall vote... this is certain. The results should be in in about an hour or so

Johns a great guy and many locals know him from chyurch or from him being their councillor for so long. He deserves to win and Im not 100% for SNP but someone has to beat labour here and SNP are the only party with a chance.