General Election 2010 - Labour and the Mirror get desperate - tactical voting

You may have noticed that Gordon Brown and his ministers have become increasingly desperate over the last few days. They are telling blatant lies about Conservative policy in the hope that they can scare enough voters into voting for them. They have always used the rule that if you tell a lie often enough, then the people will believe it. It shows a great contempt for the intelligence of the British public.

However, what the Daily Mirror have done this morning is their lowest act of desperation so far. Being the ONLY paper left supporting Labour, they have decided to tell their readers how to vote tactically. Always a Labour paper, they are now telling Labour voters to vote Lib Dem in marginal seats, and vice versa. You have got to admire their loyalty when almost every other paper has realised that Labour are finished and that the Conservatives are the party to get us out of this mess. I imagine all the Mirror journalists are sat in the office with their eyes shut, fingers in ears, shouting LA LA LA, WE CAN'T HEAR YOU:

Guardian ICM Poll strengthens Conservative lead.

The Guardian's ICM poll brings more bad news for Gordon Brown.





From the Guardian:

Voters think that Gordon Brown's high-profile battle to turn around the economy is doomed, according to a new Guardian/ICM poll. Only 31% think the prime minister's strategy will make things better. Most, 64%, think it will either achieve nothing or even make the situation worse.

Even Labour's supporters are doubtful: only 48% of people who voted for the party in 2005 believe that the government's measures will work.

The deepening crisis has left the party facing heavy defeat. Overall Conservative support is up six points since last month's Guardian/ICM survey. At 44% it is only one point below its 25-year ICM high. Labour is on 32% and the Liberal Democrats are on 16%.

Full story HERE.

Conservatives back to a 15 point lead in ComRes poll.

The latest ComRes poll puts the Conservative party back in a 15 point lead over Labour. Labour are once again polling sub 30 per cent (oh dear, how sad, never mind).

Conservatives 43 +2
Labour 28 -4
LibDem 16 -1

Glasgow East by-election 2008 results. SNP win?

Well the talk is that there's going to be a re-count, bugger, it looks like it's going to be a late night. It seems the SNP have won it, but Labour aren't giving up without a fight. Good news for the Conservatives comes from the early estimate of a 10% share of the vote, that's up at least 3 points on 2005 and should see them leap-frog the Lib Dems. In fact the word is that the Lib Dems could lose their deposit (Oh dear, how sad, never....).

UPDATE@ 01:45 Looks like it's going to be a full re-count.

UPDATE@ 01:47 Could be a bundle count - Phew!

UPDATE@ 01:57 It's a full recount - Labour have called for it, seeing as there's only a few hundred votes in it. Result in 10 - 15mins. (ish)

UPDATE@ 02:07 Anytime now. Candidates and agents are gathering.

UPDATE@ 02:22 The results: SNP WIN!!! Tories take THIRD!!!

SNP 11,277

Labour 10,912

Conservatives 1,639

Lib Dems 915

Turnout 42%

What now for Gordon Brown and Labour?

Glasgow East by-election results. My prediction.

Click HERE for the latest news on the by-election.

According to the bookie William Hill, Labour have got the Glasgow East by-election sewn up. I'm not so sure. I think it is entirely possible for the SNP to just nick the seat. Whatever happens I'm 100% positive that Labour's candidate Margaret Curran will not achieve anywhere near their 2005 majority of 13507 (43.7%). In 2005 the turnout was 30,939 (48.2%), but I don't think we will see that many vote in this by election, possibly 35%.

A good result for Labour would be a win with a majority of 5000+.
A fair result for Labour would be a win with a majority of 1000+.
A bad result for Labour would be a win with a majority of less than 1000.
A terrible result for Labour (possibly the end for Gordon Brown) would be to lose.

A good result for the SNP (possibly the end for Gordon Brown) would be a win.
A fair result for the SNP would be loosing by less than 2000 votes.
A bad result for the SNP would be loosing by more than 5000 votes.
A terrible result for the SNP would be loosing by more than 8000 votes.

A excellent result for the Conservatives would be to receive a 15% share of the vote.
A good result for the Conservatives would be to receive a 10% share of the vote.
A bad result for the Conservatives would be to receive less than 7% of the vote.

A excellent result for the Lib Dems would be to receive a 20% share of the vote.
A good result for the Lib Dems would be to receive a 15% share of the vote.
A bad result for the Lib Dems would be to receive less than 12% of the vote.

So here's my prediction for Thursday: Labour win by a majority of less than 2000 over the SNP. Lib Dems 10% of the vote, Conservatives 16% (hopeful I know) of the vote.

The latest odds from William Hill:

Labour Backed To Hold On In Glasgow- Is This A Brown Bounce?

Bookmakers William Hill have shortened the price of a Labour victory in the Glasgow East By-Election from 2/5 to 1/3 as money comes in for the Labour Candidate. The money is good news for Gordon Brown who until today was favourite to leave office this year but he is now out to 2/1 (from 5/4) to go in 2008 and is odds on at 4/6 to lead Labour into the next Election. The long term outlook is still fairly grim with the Conservatives 2/7 favourites and Labour offered at 5/2.

"There is a definite Brown bounce going on, which is good news for Gordon but he has still got a huge amount to do if he is to lead Labour to victory at the next General Election," said Hill's spokesman Rupert Adams.

I think Rupert may be getting a little carried away. There's not going to be any kind of "Brown Bounce" - unless it's his backside hitting the cobbles outside No10.

William Hill - No shortage of cash for SNP to beat Labour (Glasgow East).

From William Hill:

THE GLASGOW East by-election is shaping up to be the biggest betting by-election ever, say bookmakers William Hill. 'We are doing tremendous business in a constituency which would normally attract very little betting money as, on the formbook,Labour should be unbackable to win here - yet there is as much money for them to lose as win' said Hill's spokesman Graham Sharpe.

Hills currently make Labour 2/5 favourites to win the by-election, after taking the biggest single bet struck so far, of £2200 for them to win, while the SNP are now quoted at 7/4 - and have recently attracted two bets of £1000; the Conservatives are 33/1 and the Lib Dems 50/1. 'Although this is Labour's third safest seat in Scotland there has been no shortage of cash for the SNP to beat them and this could yet turn out to be the first by-election to produce a betting turnover of £100,000' said Sharpe. 'Labour were favourites when we opened the book, then they became joint favourites with the SNP, then the SNP became clear favourites, then they were joint favourites again and now Labour have gone back ahead.'

TO WIN GLASGOW EAST BY-ELECTION: 2/5 Labour; 7/4 SNP; 33/1 Conservative; 50/1Lib Dem.

It's worth noting that Hills have the Conservatives beating the Lib Dems into third place. This is a reversal of the 2005 General election which saw the Lib Dems on 12% and the Tories on 7%. It also contradicts the latest ICM poll from the Telegraph (Lib Dem 9% Con 7%).

Conservatives 22 point lead in Sunday Times YouGov Poll.

The latest YouGov poll for The Sunday Times puts the Conservatives on 47%, Labour on 25% and the Liberal Democrats 18%. It seems talk of a Labour comeback last week were a little premature.

There's also bad news for Brown on the road tax scam: 64% said it was another example of a retrospective “stealth” tax dressed up as a green measure.

Lords reject a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty.

The House of Lords has rejected the Conservative proposal to hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty by 62 votes. No doubt we can thank the Lib Dems for this betrayal of our country. Nick Clegg has proved himself once again to be two faced. Clegg ordered his MPs to abstain from the vote in the Commons, but he ordered his Peers to vote against a referendum in the Lords. We have been let down and sold down the river by our elected representatives. It is now down to our Irish cousins to save us from an EU Super State by voting NO in tomorrows referendum.

The vote was lost by 280 -218.

Breaking News: If you are Irish you must read this before voting. Your government has held secret talks in Brussels to get around a 'NO' vote tomorrow.

Nick Clegg has more faces than Big Ben (Lisbon Treaty).

I've pointed out several times what a complete and utter two faced ARSE Nick Clegg really is: HERE, HERE and HERE. Well it seems that William Hague has written to Cleggie asking where he actually stands on the subject of a referendum for the Lisbon Treaty. I'll be stuffed if I know.

William writes:

"Tomorrow the Lords will begin the key votes on the Lisbon Treaty, including the crucial vote on a referendum. In the Commons you ordered your MPs to abstain on the vote. You even ordered those frontbenchers who insisted on keeping their manifesto promises to resign.

You said you wanted a referendum on the EU – in or out. On 25th February you led your MPs in storming out of the Chamber because Mr. Speaker had not selected a Liberal Democrat amendment for that referendum.

In the Guardian on 25th February you wrote: 'We want a referendum on Europe with substance. This generation deserves its chance to say where we stand on Europe - in or out.'

Yet in the House of Lords, when an amendment was tabled to provide for the very In-Out referendum that you had presented as the key Liberal Democrat objective, your peers abstained. Had those 76 peers voted for the amendment you would have won the vote. Why were they told to abstain?

Now the Lords will soon vote on a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. The Leader of the Liberal Democrats in the Lords has indicated that Lib Dem peers will be whipped to oppose it.

Do you support this? If not, have you lost control over your party in the Lords or will you publicly tell Lib Dem peers to vote the same way as Lib Dem MPs were told to? If you do, does that not expose your real position as being determined to force this Treaty through without the British people having the say they were promised in any way at all?

The Liberal Democrat position on Europe now looks to be a mixture of chaos and hypocrisy. Before you became leader you and Vince Cable proposed a motion at your 2005 party conference that 'any proposals which involve significant change in the relationship between the Union, the member states and its citizens should be approved in Britain through a referendum'. I agree with the thrust of that. So why won't you honour your promises?

The people who voted Lib Dem at the last election on the basis of your promises have a right to know your true position. I look forward to hearing from you what it actually is.

P.S. Owing to the public interest in this matter I am releasing this letter to the media."

Like William Hague, I will be waiting with bated breath for Clegg's reply. No doubt it will be worded in such a way that no one actually knows what he's talking about (himself included). What an embarrassment this man has turned out to be for the Lib Dems. The latest poll from ComRes shows the voter's opinion of his leadership.

Lisbon Treaty - Lib Dems - the most dishonest party?

Last night Tory peer Lord Blackwell proposed a motion to make it law that a referendum is held on whether Britain joins the Euro. The motion was defeated by 195 votes to 135. Now this is a surprise seeing as Labour promised to hold a referendum on the Euro during their 1997 election campaign. Why would they vote against their own policy? As Lord Strathclyde said: there was "something very fishy" about the government's refusal to back its own policy. I wonder if Gordon Brown has promised the other European leaders that we will join the Euro shortly after ratifying the Lisbon Constitution Treaty. If that is the case, then this is another example of Brown denying the people their democratic right to vote. There's a good chance that if entering the Euro did go to a referendum we (like the Lisbon Treaty) would vote NO. And Gordon can't let that happen.

It looks very much like Gordon Brown is going to railroad us into the Lisbon Treaty, shortly followed by forcing the Euro on us.

As angry as that makes me, it is nothing compared to how the dishonest behaviour of the Lib Dems infuriates me. A while ago I wrote the post: How to flush out a rat - In which I explained how Nick Clegg had forced his MPs to abstain from the vote for a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, but would whip the Lib Dem peers to vote against a referendum when it reached the upper house. The reason - Gordon Brown would not be guaranteed to win the vote against a referendum unless the Lib Dem peers voted with his Labour peers. Nick Clegg has more faces than Big Ben's clock tower.

It gets worse. The UKIP peer, Lord Pearson is calling for vote on a referendum on Britain's continued membership of the EU. Now this is where it gets a little confusing: The Lid Dem peers are going to abstain from this vote. Can anyone out there figure that one out? Well a Lib Dem spokesman tried to explain their ridiculous position. He said the Lib Dems did not want to "give succour" to eurosceptics by voting with the UK Independence Party. Apparently the party wanted a referendum on whether Britain should remain in Europe from a "pro-European stance". What a load of old cobblers.

Do you think the Lib Dems are the most dishonest party? I'm pretty sure they are.

Poll - How will you vote in the next General Election?

How will you vote in the next General Election? Will you be changing sides or sticking with what you've got?

Sorry I couldn't fit all the other parties in the poll. If you will be voting for a party other than the three main parties, please check the "other box".

How will you vote in the next General Election?
	Did you vote Labour last time and intend to next time.
	Did you vote Labour last time and intend to vote Conservative this time.
	Did you vote Labour last time and intend to vote Lib Dem this time.
	Did you vote Labour last time and intend to vote for "other" parties next time.
	Did you vote Conservative last time and intend to next time.
	Did you vote Conservative last time and intend to vote Lib Dem this time.
	Did you vote Conservative last time and intend to vote Labour this time.
	Did you vote Conservative last time and intend to vote for "other" parties next time.
	Did you vote Lib Dem last time and intend to next time.
	Did you vote Lib Dem last time and intend to vote Conservative this time.
	Did you vote Lib Dem last time and intend to vote Labour this time.
	Did you vote Lib Dem last time and intend to vote for "other" parties next time.
	Did you vote for an "other" party last time and intend to vote for an "other" party next time.
pollcode.com free polls

26 point lead - Cameron must be given the credit.

The Sun's poll carried out by YouGov, which indicated that Labour have not been as unpopular since the 1930s, is the result of the actions of two men - Gordon Brown and David Cameron. Without doubt Brown's dithering, poor choice of policy and general incompetence has caused Labour to lose a great amount of support. But, that lost support has not been to the advantage of the Lib Dems. Ever since the highly successful Conservative party conference last year, David Cameron has led his party to historic popularity. There are certain members of the media who have said that the Tories recent success is more down to Gordon's ineptitude rather than Cameron's leadership. Well I say - what a load of rubbish.

The policies that Cameron and his shadow cabinet laid out at the Tory conference were stolen by Brown, everyone knew it. They knew the we were the party with the ideas and Labour were reduced to stealing them. Brown is trying to use the all mouth and no trousers approach to Cameron, but it falls on deaf ears when the only Labour policies the public like are second hand Tory ones. I can't think of one Labour policy since Brown came to power that the public actually appreciated. All we ever hear from Labour is tax this and tax that, ban, ban, ban, fine, fine, fine. Labour's policies are so unpopular that their own MPs are campaigning against them in their own constituencies. However that doesn't seem to stop them voting for them in parliament.

I'm a member of the Conservative party, not because I'm a traditional Tory, but because the Tories are the party who are coming up with the policies I feel are necessary for this country to become great once again. I supported Labour in the past, but they have sucked this country dry. It's all been down to uncontrollable spending and poor management. Our taxes are ridiculous, spending is out of control and so our national debt is an embarrassment. We all know that crime is getting worse and that our public services are fast becoming a joke. And still Labour publish figures telling us that actually, tractor production is up. To achieve this the massage the figures or change the way those figures are recorded. Basically they lie.

That's the point. I fell out of love with labour long before I became a Conservative party member. It's the lies - the bare faced lies.

Exclusive - Nick Clegg lives!

I know what you were thinking when you saw Nick Clegg's name in the title of this post - isn't he dead? You could be forgiven for thinking so. For a leader of one of the big three political parties he seems to keep a very low profile - we see more of McCavity than Clegg. It was the same during the Lib Dem leadership race, Huhne was all over the media while Clegg skulked in the shadows. I was sure Huhne would win, I bet many Lib Dem members are now wishing he had.

Talking of Lib Dem leaders, Vince Cable has been reported as saying that the party was "not doing as well as we hoped we would be" in recent polls. However, with only two days until the local elections, Clegg has now stepped from the shadows to claim:

"I am in fact extremely pleased with where we are in the polls. "The polls yesterday we're at 20%, that's considerably higher than 13% just a few years ago. "It's far, far higher than we've ever been at this point in the political cycle two or three years after a general election."

The truth of course, is that with Labour dying a slow death, the LibDems should be doing much, much better. The Lib Dems third leader in two years has, to my recollection only surfaced once since his Lisbon Treaty abstention fiasco - and that was to tell us how many notches he has on his headboard. He's not had a very auspicious year so far has he? If I were a Lib Dem supporter (not in a million years) I would be a little worried to have a leader who keeps a low profile, only to pop up to make a show of himself and the party. However, I would be more worried by his lack of ambition. Apparently his overriding ambition is to double or more than double the number of Lib Dem seats over the next two elections. Wow, five (ish) years of his leadership and he strives to have less seats than the Tories have now.

When Nick Clegg eventually steps down, will the history books say: Nick set himself low standards - and failed to achieve them.

Conservatives command a 14 point lead over Labour (YouGov Poll).

As confidence in Gordon Brown's ability to manage the economy (and Darling's I suppose) drops like a very large stony thing, the Conservatives have polled at least 40% for the last six months. The Lib Dems are hovering around the mid-teens (no pun intended). And if Nick Clegg does not whip his Peers to abstain from the vote for a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, then I can see that reducing drastically. I don't think it will be long before we see a 20 point gap between the Conservatives and Labour (45-25). Could we see a decade of Labour and the Lib Dems fighting it out for second position?

This poll would give David Cameron and his MPs a 100 seat majority in the house of commons. And that is what is probably needed to reverse the mess this Labour government have got us into. Of all the questions asked by YouGov in this poll, maybe this will be the most damaging to Gordon Brown:

Do you think that Alistair Darling is doing a good job or a bad job as Chancellor of the Exchequer?

A good job 14
A bad job 56
Don’t know 30

No one should ever vote Lib Dem again - Lisbon Treaty.

There are rumours flying around and whispers of what could be the most disgusting act of self serving politics to occur in decades. It is well known that if you were to cut Nick Clegg in half, you would find gold stars running through him like Blackpool rock. So it was no surprise when he forced his MPs to abstain from voting for a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. You see, it is thought that as many as fifty Lib Dem MPs would have voted for a referendum if given a free vote. And old EU Nick would not like that. To cover up this massive split in his party he invented the In or Out option, which was seen by all as a feeble attempt at a smokescreen.

Now, you would think that Nick would continue with this party policy when the Lisbon Treaty reaches the House of Lords. You would, it seems, be thinking wrong. There's one major difference between Lib Dem MPs and Lib Dem Peers - Lib Dem Peers are very Pro-Europe and if given a free vote, they would probably vote against allowing a referendum. This is were Nick has a problem: If he sticks to his party policy and forces the Lib Dem Peers to abstain, there is a damn good chance that the House of Lords will vote in favour of a referendum. However, if he does the dirty and allows Lib Dem Peers to vote, there is a equally good chance that the House of Lords will vote against a referendum.

So this is the question: Will Nick Clegg perform an act of rank hypocrisy and allow his Peers to vote, and thus steal the people's chance of a democratic vote. Or will he stick to his previous policy and force them to abstain, and risk damaging his dreams of European union. There is also the possibility that Clegg and Gordon Brown have done a deal.

If Clegg does not whip his Peers to abstain, then I hope the people can see him for what he is.

ICM Poll gives the Conservatives a 13 point lead.

An ICM poll for tomorrow's Guardian confirms that Labour are definitely losing public support. The Conservatives are on 42%, Labour, 29% and the LibDems are on 21%. At this rate the LibDems will overtake Labour.

Does anyone know the last time that a Liberal party out-polled Labour?

It's the referendum. Labour and certain parts of the media have been trying to play down the importance (to the people) of the Lisbon Treaty. Constantly saying that the people weren't interested and that it wasn't a priority. That may be so, but democracy is a priority. The people are not so dumb (no matter what Brown and co may think) not to realise that they have been cheated out of their right to vote. The people know that they have not been allowed a vote because the government would not like the result.

Many now realise that to re-establish democracy in this country, Brown and Labour must go.

Lisbon Treaty - How to flush out a rat (Nick Clegg).

There are some that believe that Nick Clegg and Gordon Brown have come to some kind of gentleman's agreement. Did Nick Clegg force his MPs to abstain from the Lisbon Treaty referendum vote to help out Gordon? Could there be a Lib-Lab pact in the offing? I suspect that there could be some truth in such a belief, but I'm not convinced. Yet.....

There is one sure fire way to find out. You see Nick Clegg has promised to whip the Lib Dem Lords to abstain from the same vote if it is re-introduced into the Upper Chamber. The problem for Gordon Brown that is the Lords just might vote in favour of a referendum. From the Telegraph:

There are 202 Conservative peers, and 215 Labour peers. IWAR says that if the 78 Liberal Democrats were all to abstain, there would need to be just 13 more of the 224 crossbenchers in favour than against in order to deny the Government a majority.

So, do you see where this is leading? There is a decent chance that the vote in the Upper Chamber will go against Gordon's wishes. If Nick Clegg is in Brown's pocket then he will go back on his instruction to Lib Dem peers to abstain. If Clegg instructs Lib Dem peers to vote against a referendum then the rat will have been flushed out.

Let's wait and see what happens shall we?

Timing is everything. Lib Dems and the EU.

After last nights vote on the Lisbon Treaty referendum it's fair to say that I was not in the best of moods. Imagine how pleased I was to find a Focus News Letter from my local Lib Dem councillor on my doorstep this morning. I thought about writing something unpleasant on it and posting it back through the offending councillors own letterbox. After a few deep breaths I thought that such action would be too severe so I considered just screwing it up and pushing it through his letterbox. In the end I just dropped it in the bin with the rest of the rubbish.

Later I found my Conservative MEP ballot paper on my doorstep. Obviously I can't say who I ranked as my number one choice. On a totally different tack: that Daniel Hannan seems like a nice chap.

Lisbon Treaty - Lib Dem MPs are to stand down tonight.

The fallout from Nick Cleggs ridiculous position on the Lisbon Treaty referendum as already started to settle. Sky News reports:

Countryside spokesman Tim Farron, justice spokesman David Heath and Alistair Carmichael, who speaks on Scotland and Northern Ireland, will step down after they have voted on a Tory amendment to the Treaty which calls for a referendum.

This will be a very long day for the Lib Dems. It could also be the beginning of the end of their party.

UPDATE: Alistair Carmichael and Tim Farron have resigned.

5th March 2008 - The day the Lib Dem party dies? (Lisbon Treaty).

Tomorrow could see the death of one of our major political parties. In an act of suicidal idiocy, Nick Clegg will order his MPs to abstain from voting on the Conservative amendment calling for a referendum on the Lisbon treaty. If any of the Lib Dem MPs obey his command they will never hold the position of MP again following the next election. In fact some may face pressure to resign before then. Tens of Lib Dem seats will be lost and the party will die.

If Labour manage to stop the referendum then they will lose and lose big in the next election. If they think the public don't care then they are more detached from reality than I thought. At the next election the people will be told that they have been cheated by Labour, they will be told that Labour denied them a referendum because they wouldn't have voted the way the government wanted. They will be told that on the 5th of March 2008 democracy died in the United Kingdom and that the blood is all over Gordon Brown's hands.

When the Lib Dems elected Nick Clegg as their leader, they opened their arms to welcome the Grim Reaper.

UPDATE: Ben Brogan reports on a Lib Dem cabinet walkout.

UPDATE 2: Nick Clegg on Newsnight. If you are a Lib Dem supporter, you may want to consider your options after watching THIS. (17min 55sec into the show).