Being a Conservative party member I shouldn't have to ask myself that question. There should be no doubt in my mind that voting Tory is the right thing to do. But there is doubt.
There's a big problem facing the Tory party in the run up to the Euro Elections, and that problem's name is....... Referendum (dun dun dunnnnnn...). It's a problem that David Cameron can do little about without making life very difficult for himself if he is to lead the next government.
It's like this: If Gordon Brown was to do the entire country a favour and call an early election, then Cameron's first year in office becomes a whole lot easier. He can give the go ahead to his promised referendum before the Lisbon Treaty is ratified, the country will vote NO, and the Treaty dies on it's arse. Everybody is happy. But if Gordon decides to desperately cling on to power like we all expect him to, then Cameron has some very difficult times ahead.
If the Lisbon Treaty is already ratified when Dave strides through the big black door then he is left with two options. The first is to say "I'm sorry, but Gordon has put the country into a position that would be too difficult to remove ourselves from". The second option would be to put the UK at odds with the rest of Europe by backing out of a Treaty that we are already signed up to. Unfortunately for David Cameron, neither of the two options are great (understatement). The first will alienate a vast chunk of the party, and the second will be very damaging to European relations.
Of course if Gordon Brown had not broken yet another manifesto promise then this would be all academic.
So where does that leave me?
UKIP? The problem I have with UKIP is a simple one. Though I hate the EU, I cannot see how we can extricate ourselves from it without causing damage. But not only that, I do believe that there are some benefits to being in the EU (though I can't think of any off hand).
Labour and the LibDems? I've lumped these together because they both want further integration into the EU, and hell will freeze over before I vote for that (or them).
Libertas? Now I do like what Libertas have to say but I just can't see how they are going to achieve it, so they are a no no for now.
So that brings me back to the Conservatives. I can't blame Dave for not promising a referendum after ratification. It would be a bloody political nightmare to pull us out of the EU - because that is what it will mean. Once in place, the rest of Europe will not scrap the Treaty because the Brits don't like it.
So I've made my decision. I'm going to vote Tory. I'm voting Tory in the hope that Gordon steps down (or is pushed) before the Treaty is ratified. If that fails then I'm putting my trust in David Cameron's Tories to fight for UK interests from within the Treaty. They are the only party that are likely to do that (apart from Libertas but I can't see them getting the numbers).
So here's a message for Dave: Tell us the truth i.e. If we have a Tory government before ratification then we will have a referendum. If not, then you will do your utmost to get the best deal for the UK post treaty.