It's the Expenses stupid! - Labour's big fat lie.

We are, by all accounts (including some Labour MPs) going to see some truly disastrous European election results for Labour tonight. I've outlined HERE how they are going to be able to use the UKIP protest vote to wriggle out of blaming themselves and Brown for their poor performance. The line being used (already) is that they are taking more than their fair share of the blame for the expenses scandal.

This is of course a massive deception. The polls have shown that Labour are just as far behind the Conservatives now, as they were before the expenses scandal broke. The truth is that the Conservatives have fared slightly better because of Cameron's swift and decisive action (when compared to Brown's usual dithering). The gap between Labour and the Conservatives in the Local elections last Friday mirrors what the polls have been saying for months.

What could make Labour's result even worse for them in the European elections tonight is their position on Europe - it has bugger all to do with expenses. Labour (Brown) refused to give us the referendum they promised in their manifesto and the people quite rightly are not going to vote for them. The only silver lining for Brown is that UKIP are likely to pull in some of the Tory vote.

We will be told that "it's the expenses stupid" tonight. But Brown and the rest of Labour are the stupid ones if they think the people will fall for such an incredible lie.

UPDATE: @1812: Labour MEP on BBC saying that "it's the expenses stupid". Get ready for this to be repeated all night.

Off to Vote! - Go Conservative.

I've not been up long (on nights) and I'm just about ready to go and do what many have fought and died for around the world. I'm going to use my democratic vote. I like voting, there was a long period in my life when couldn't vote in person (in the Navy). Today I will be voting Conservative. My reasons for staying loyal to the party that I'm a member of are explained HERE.

Don't forget to vote.

Euro Elections - Which Party should I vote for?

Being a Conservative party member I shouldn't have to ask myself that question. There should be no doubt in my mind that voting Tory is the right thing to do. But there is doubt.

There's a big problem facing the Tory party in the run up to the Euro Elections, and that problem's name is....... Referendum (dun dun dunnnnnn...). It's a problem that David Cameron can do little about without making life very difficult for himself if he is to lead the next government.

It's like this: If Gordon Brown was to do the entire country a favour and call an early election, then Cameron's first year in office becomes a whole lot easier. He can give the go ahead to his promised referendum before the Lisbon Treaty is ratified, the country will vote NO, and the Treaty dies on it's arse. Everybody is happy. But if Gordon decides to desperately cling on to power like we all expect him to, then Cameron has some very difficult times ahead.

If the Lisbon Treaty is already ratified when Dave strides through the big black door then he is left with two options. The first is to say "I'm sorry, but Gordon has put the country into a position that would be too difficult to remove ourselves from". The second option would be to put the UK at odds with the rest of Europe by backing out of a Treaty that we are already signed up to. Unfortunately for David Cameron, neither of the two options are great (understatement). The first will alienate a vast chunk of the party, and the second will be very damaging to European relations.

Of course if Gordon Brown had not broken yet another manifesto promise then this would be all academic.

So where does that leave me?

UKIP? The problem I have with UKIP is a simple one. Though I hate the EU, I cannot see how we can extricate ourselves from it without causing damage. But not only that, I do believe that there are some benefits to being in the EU (though I can't think of any off hand).

Labour and the LibDems? I've lumped these together because they both want further integration into the EU, and hell will freeze over before I vote for that (or them).

Libertas? Now I do like what Libertas have to say but I just can't see how they are going to achieve it, so they are a no no for now.

So that brings me back to the Conservatives. I can't blame Dave for not promising a referendum after ratification. It would be a bloody political nightmare to pull us out of the EU - because that is what it will mean. Once in place, the rest of Europe will not scrap the Treaty because the Brits don't like it.

So I've made my decision. I'm going to vote Tory. I'm voting Tory in the hope that Gordon steps down (or is pushed) before the Treaty is ratified. If that fails then I'm putting my trust in David Cameron's Tories to fight for UK interests from within the Treaty. They are the only party that are likely to do that (apart from Libertas but I can't see them getting the numbers).

So here's a message for Dave: Tell us the truth i.e. If we have a Tory government before ratification then we will have a referendum. If not, then you will do your utmost to get the best deal for the UK post treaty.

Eric Pickles: The second War Room Briefing

The next excellent video from Eric Pickles:

Tamsin Dunwoody - Is Gordon Brown an asset or not?

I think the answer Tamsin is looking for is: "Yes, Gordon Brown is a great asset".



Do you get the feeling that she is trying to distance herself from Gordon? Also - I didn't realise that Gordon Brown was unanimously elected as our Prime Minister.

Hat Tip: Ordovicius.

Labour MPs are thrown to the lions by Harman.

Harriet Harman has ordered Labour MPs and Ministers to help out in the Crewe and Nantwich by-election. I bet they are chuffed about that. "What, me? Face the voters? Are you mad? they'll tear me apart. "Anyway, why do I have to go if Gordon is bottling out?"

If I were a Labour MP, I'd be avoiding the public like the plague. And if I was a journalist, I'd be following them with great interest.

Sent from my BlackBerry® wireless device

William Hill - Tories to win Crewe and Nantwich.

From William Hill:

GORDON BROWN IS ODDS-ON TO SUFFER CREWE CUT

THE CONSERVATIVES have been installed as hot favourites by William Hill to heap further humiliation on Gordon Brown and Labour by capturing the Crewe and Nantwich constituency in the forthcoming by-election. Hills have made them 2/5 favourites to win the former safe seat, for which Labour are offered at 9/4 with the by-election specialists, the Lib Dems, at 10/1.

William Hill have made Labour the longest odds they have been since coming to power 11 years ago to win the next General Election. They are 13/8 to do so, with the Conservatives now offered at 4/9 - the shortest price they have been for a General Election since they lost power. The Lib Dems are 66/1.A Hung Parliament is a 7/4 chance.Hills make Gordon Brown 8/13 to lead Labour into the next General Election and 6/5 not to.

WILLIAM HILL: WHEN WILL BROWN CEASE TO BE PM? 6/4 2010; 7/4 2009; 5/1 2008; 14/1 2015; 16/1 2017; 16/1 2016; 16/1 2014; 20/1 2013; 33/1 2012; 50/1 2011.

WILLIAM HILL: NEXT LABOUR LEADER ODDS (last week's odds in red): 5/2 (2/1) D MILIBAND, 5/1 E BALLS, 6/1 (10/1) J STRAW, 7/1 A JOHNSON, 10/1 J PURNELL 14/1 A BURNHAM, 14/1 J DENHAM, 16/1 D ALEXANDER, 16/1 E MILIBAND, 16/1 H BENN, 16/1 Y COOPER, 20/1 H HARMAN, 25/1 C FLINT, 25,/1 D BROWNE, 25/1 R KELLY, 33/1 A MILBURN, 33/1 C CLARKE, 33/1 J SMITH, 50/1 A DARLING.

Local Elections - Go out and vote Conservative.

It really does matter. Even if you live in an area where the Conservatives have historically not done very well in your local elections - you'd be surprised how many people are feeling like you. This is a chance to send a message to Gordon Brown and his party that enough is enough. Enough of being denied a vote on the Lisbon Treaty. Enough of colossal incompetence across many government departments. Enough of massive tax increases. Enough of throwing money at public services without any results. Enough of the nanny state. Enough of intrusions into our privacy. Enough of poor education standards. Enough of closing our A&E wards. Enough of closing our maternity wards. Enough of closing our Post Offices. Enough of dirty hospitals. Enough of overcrowded prisons. Enough of underfunding our Armed forces. Enough of crushing national debt. Enough of fudging inflation figures. Enough of the welfare state. Enough of uncontrolled immigration. Enough of the police being stuck behind desks. Enough of taxing the low paid and thinking you can get away with it.

Enough of Brown. Enough of dithering. Enough of Labour. Enough of incompetence.

Enough. Enough. Enough.

Get out there and vote CONSERVATIVE. You know it makes sense.

Thursday's elections - How the day will be won. (local and Mayor).

It's the evening before the day we have been waiting for. Tomorrow could be make or break time for Gordon Brown. Iain Dale is predicting the Conservatives will gain more than a hundred seats in the local elections and that Boris will win by 3-5%. On Boris I agree - on the local elections I disagree: I am expecting a total and utter demolition job of Labour. Every single person I have talked to is supremely incredibly exceedingly hacked browned p*ssed off with Gordon Brown and his incompetent Cabinet. I have total confidence that tomorrow will bring a crushing defeat that Labour will not be able recover from for many, many years.

There are two possible outcomes following tomorrows results:

As I have been predicting since last year, the Labour party will get rid of Gordon Brown in an attempt to save their own necks.

Or, David Cameron will be in a position to call for the vote of no confidence in the government that many have been calling for.

So my prediction: Boris to win. And a slaughter in the local elections.

David Blunkett hopes we will vote on local issues in May elections.

David Blunkett hopes we will vote on local issues in the May elections. Talking about the axing of the 10p tax rate on BBC Radio 4's The World at One, Blunkett said:

"In my particular patch it is felt very heavily, but I think people are still giving the government the benefit of the doubt and they will be voting on local issues, at least I pray they do."

I think that says it all really. Blunkett is hoping that the country will forget its current disillusionment with our Labour Government when voting in the Local elections in May. I'm sure there are a good number of Labour councillors who are hoping for just that. To be honest it's not likely is it? We are fed up with Gordon Brown and his incompetent government and that will be reflected in a disastrous day for Labour Councils.