Wednesday, 22 July 2009

Norwich North by election - my prediction.

How important is tomorrow's by election in Norwich North? I think it could be very important. If you look at the constituency's past results in general elections, you will see that the people of Norwich North are a good indication of how the Nation will vote:
Even the one exception (1979) saw Labour's majority slashed from 9,204 down to 3,591 - giving an indication that Norwich North does follow the national trend. So tomorrow's result will be a fairly reliable representation of the nations voting intentions (as of now of course).

So here is my prediction:

Turnout: Turnout in Norwich North as always been fairly high, and if you account for the recent media coverage of the by election, then I think turnout will be high (ish) again: 60-65%.

Share of vote (2005 figures in brackets):

Conservative 42% (33.3%)
Labour 38% (44.9%)
Lib Dem 15% (16.2)
Green 2.5% (2.7)
UKIP 2% (2.4)

That will give the Conservatives a

Majority of about: 2000 (2005 Labour majority of 5,459)

16 comments:

Oliver Drew said...

I agree with you regarding the Tory vote - 42% looks about right.

I think you have the Labour vote too high though. A lot more of that will either not turn out or will go to the Lib Dems I think...we'll have to wait and see I guess...not long now!

CryBaby said...

All Labour votes have been bought either through the public sector or immigration. None of these should count. It's not fair!

John M Ward said...

I think that is a well-reasoned assessment in general, but holding a by-election in the middle of the summer holiday period is almost certain to hit turnout.

That puts an additional variable into the equation, as do the minor parties that have been doing better than usual, here and there, in recent times.

Personally, I suspect that a 2,000 or so Conservative majority is the most that one could hope for, and my feeling is that the reality is likely to be a chunk lower, perhaps under 1,000.

It is even possible that Labour could just hold the seat with a narrow majority if the non-Labour vote splits too widely between the parties, though that doesn't seem all that probable.

Anonymous said...

What to say?
How is it possible that around 50% of that electorate will vote for another Labour candidate! Please someone explain that to me. Anyone!
Firstly their last MP was removed for unorthodox use of expenses money, and yet by common consent everyone there wishes he were still available. Crazy or what!
Secondly, the present bunch have ruined the country, wrecked our education, degraded our police, and taken us well down the road to population replacement.
Perhaps it's me that's mad, but I just can't comprehend. If they should win (quite possible) I shall be ready for the funny farm, no doubt located in Norfolk.

Anonymous said...

PS. Not that I could stomach the tories, or the Lib-Dims, but there is a decent Monster Raving Loony candidate who promises smaller school classes by making the pupils sit closer together, so much more sensible than the ruling political class.

Harry Hook said...

Anonymous 16:54 said...

"Perhaps it's me that's mad, but I just can't comprehend. If they should win (quite possible) I shall be ready for the funny farm, no doubt located in Norfolk."

... and I will be right behind you. From the depths of my despair, I cannot fathom the mentality of anyone who still votes Labour.

Mulligan said...

Remarkably there are many who believe Labour are the party of the working man, when it's very clear with every (seemingly daily) moronic policy announcement leaked to the media (before parliament) that the very opposite is true.

sigh.

Henry North London said...

Any chance you could put a value on the Libertarian party candidate and how many votes he might get as an edit?

Would be nice to spread the word that there are 12 candidates not some fraction of that number

John M Ward said...

How can Labour win? Two words: "postal votes"…

Anonymous said...

Steve,

Have a look at the following written by Dan Hannan in the telegraph.

A child could see through Labour

A heart-warming email arrives from a constituent:
I recently asked my friend’s little girl what she wanted to be when she grows up.
She said she wanted to be Prime Minister some day. Both of her parents, Labour supporters, were standing there, so I asked her, ‘If you were Prime Minister what would be the first thing you would do?’
She replied, ‘I’d give food and houses to all the homeless people.’
Her parents beamed.
‘Splendid: what a worthy goal.’ I told her ‘But you don’t have to wait until you’re Prime Minister to do that. You can come over to my house and mow the lawn, pull weeds, and sweep my yard, and I’ll pay you £50.
Then I’ll take you over to the supermarket where that homeless fellow hangs out, and you can give him the £50 to use toward food and a new house.’
She thought that over for a few seconds, then she looked me straight in the eye and asked:
‘Why doesn’t the homeless man come over and do the work, and you can just pay him the £50 ?’
I said, ‘Welcome to the Conservative Party.’
Her parents still aren’t speaking to me.

Genius.

James Higham said...

We'll hold you to this.

Norfolk Blogger said...

Take 15% off their 2005 figure for Ian Gibson going and then another 5% for their poor campaign. My prediction for Labour is that they will be lucky to get 20%.

carboncoach said...

You are way way out on Greens Green!

Karcher Archer said...

UKIP, will not win, but will shock. The ball is rolling.

Sean Lynch said...

Labour trounced Steve, let's bear in mind this was a reasonably safe seat.
This is a vote against Brown, the most lamentable PM and the worst leader in the world, more than twice as many voted Tory as voted Labour, to say to the ugly one,"just get out now you fat stammering dough faced idiot", nobody apart from a few jocks want you as PM, you were never elected to do the job, so just go back to your beloved Scotland and vegetate there.

Bernard said...

A Bad result for labour, but in many ways an even worse one for the Conservatives. If the Conservatives, with their complete resources focused on one constituency, can only register a 6% increase in their vote, they can expect to gain little on their 2005 result when they have 650 odd seats to contest.

Prediction for the next election based on this result: no party will get more than one third of the votes.