How important is tomorrow's by election in Norwich North? I think it could be very important. If you look at the constituency's past results in general elections, you will see that the people of Norwich North are a good indication of how the Nation will vote:
Even the one exception (1979) saw Labour's majority slashed from 9,204 down to 3,591 - giving an indication that Norwich North does follow the national trend. So tomorrow's result will be a fairly reliable representation of the nations voting intentions (as of now of course).
So here is my prediction:
Turnout: Turnout in Norwich North as always been fairly high, and if you account for the recent media coverage of the by election, then I think turnout will be high (ish) again: 60-65%.
Share of vote (2005 figures in brackets):
Conservative 42% (33.3%)
Labour 38% (44.9%)
Lib Dem 15% (16.2)
Green 2.5% (2.7)
UKIP 2% (2.4)
That will give the Conservatives a
Majority of about: 2000 (2005 Labour majority of 5,459)